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Too many kids, not enough kindergarten seats
By adamg on Wed, 04/04/2012 - 6:44am
The Globe reports BPS is scrambling to find more seats for the unexpectedly large number of kids whose parents applied for a seat for the coming school year.
Meanwhile, Cambridge officials face their own crisis: One kindergarten now has too many well off English-speaking kids.
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Comments
Unexpected?
Do they even bother looking at the census data?
I suspect they do
Although given that this is a school system that had to re-open a shut high school because they forgot about the tens of millions of dollars the state would demand in reimbursement for renovations there, one never knows.
In any case, read far enough into the article and you'll see there are other issues besides total numbers of 4-year-olds in Boston - such as more parents realizing they can't afford private school (or even deciding BPS is now good enough to trust their kids with).
Interesting story - but kinder. does not mean high school
I heard the story this morning on WBUR, but I haven't read the article. The radio story posed an interesting question - the host asked the superintendant whether this will translate into a need for more space in the upper grades.
A reasonable enough question - I thought the Superintendant demurred, which might have been the best course.
I don't propose to speak for a majority, but I can say this: of my friends whose children are either in or entering the BPS, many are happy to have them there for the elementary grades (say, up to 5th). After that, not one of them plans to keep them there, and its not always because of their feelings about quality (although it is sometimes). It is because of a perceived lack of safety in the Jr. high/high schools - and I think this is one of those situations where perception is reality (i.e., even if the schools are "safe" the perception that they are not, even if unfounded, will often carry the day).
On a related note, I think that the "boom" can probably in large part be attributed to the number of people who are now in their 30s, who during the last 10 years decided to stay in the city because it became "cooler" or because they had to stay in their apartments because they couldn't afford that house in the suburbs that they otherwise would have bought. In the meantime, they've married and had kids, and even though the housing bubble has popped, it's not easy to just pick up and move even if you want to (and you can qualify for a new mortgage).
[I know this and the above will bring the "go ahead, flee to the suburbs and make my housing cheaper" crew out, but I'm just reporting on what I've seen. I'm not suggesting that everyone seeks the suburbs, but I can say that as someone in that age cohort, and amongst the 15-20 couples we were pretty close with over the past 10 years only my wife and I and one other couple we know have remained in the urban core - everyone else decamped to the suburbs and cited cost and child-related issues for doing so. I am aware that it might be different for some, but I just don't think if you ask a lot of the 20somethings around town if they plan to raise kids in Boston proper that they're going to say yes.]
The short and long of it is that I wouldn't start planning to build any new nine-figure high schools (or reopen shuttered ones) just yet.
Harder than it appears
Yes swirly - if you read to the bottom of the story they read and study lots of data - but it's not simply "here's a kid we need a seat". You need to figure out of the roughly 7000-8000 kids in a grade level citywide - how many will end up in BPS, how many will go the private school route, how many will move (which a lot of people do when the kids reach school age -but apparently fewer now).
This will get more complicated which is why I'm responding directly to Isaac. Seems to be a surge in people that can no longer afford private school, plus the you can't move now crowd you cite and shifting to BPS but at the same time there are several new charters opening which will drain kids away - especially at the middle and high school levels.
As you know, I'm not a huge defender of BPS - but I'd cut them some slack on this one. There are a lot of moving pieces and between the economy and a host of changes from rezoning to charters. I don't see them building a lot of new schools any time soon and I think longer term you'll see more kids heading to charters -but with so much in flux, I don't envy the people trying to figure out capacity.
One thing that's for certain, if this is an ongoing trend we will need more teachers, but there's no more money. That means that you have to split the same budget over more heads and the BTU is going to have to get real in their current negotiations if this is indeed a trend and not a one-off occurrence.
Happening all over
There are a lot of 5 year olds nationally, and they aren't in the demographic categories that typically move to upscale suburban locations at the start of kindergarten, either. There is a large preschool population nationally - driven by the second echo of the great baby boom and immigration(most immigrants are of child bearing age and have somewhat larger families than non-migrants). There are only a finite number of private school seats, too ... they can't "all" go to private school even if their parents wanted them too.
Our community is seeing a large influx of kids coming out of the K-8 parochial schools and into the high school - because the high school has gotten quite competitive and parents can't justify the expense of sending kids to private schools if the academics now lag the free option. Fortunately, this got figured out through the keen interest in several "information events" long before any registration deadlines, and has resulted in tougher criteria for automatic honors subject placement coming out of grade 8, noted on the forms I just filled out in March for the coming fall.
Does BPS do mailings or hold information meetings to gauge the possible response? I doubt many people suddenly moved into Boston with 5 year olds in the last month - these people were likely there all along, and planning to enroll their kids in BPS, and might have said so if anybody had asked. They can't reach all parents, but they might have gotten to enough to know that interest was high.
all good points
And even last year there was a slight uptick in BPS population for the first time in over 10 years. But these things usually happen slowly and you can see them coming based on historical data and trends. Again, I'm no huge defender of a lot of what happens at BPS, but from reading the article you can see that they are dealing with a lot of variables and it sounds like a year over year jump this out of the ordinary has a lot more behind it than straight demographics and we are still 6 months out from actual enrollment. If they had done this 6 months ago as part of the process it probably still would have been a surprise and we'd be having the exact same conversation.
I'd cut them some slack on this one - any time you deal with statistics there's always an outlier and it sounds like this is the year of the outlier. Something changed and while their first priority is to get the kids placed, priority number two is to figure out what changed so this doesn't happen again.
There are a number of families
(probably families with fewer economic choices) who tend to move more frequently due to circumstances. My impression from some of my kids' classmates is that there is not a lot of notice or planning for any of that. A lot of kids don't just go to private school, they go to charter schools. And since there are more charter schools being established in Boston, it's probably hard to for BPS to plan for whether these incoming kindergarteners and elementary school students will attend a public school or a charter school. Again, some people get a seat or get on a waitlist, but that doesn't mean they are really going to attend a school in the fall, which leads to a big scramble in the fall, with waitlists moving fast and people getting the call that suddenly, there is a spot available in a school for their kid. Kind of hard to make other plans, whatever those may be, and then have to reconsider all over again.
The public schools really clear out a lot after 5th grade. Many people send their kids to charter or private schools because of low confidence in the BPS middle and high schools. There was a 2009 survey done of Roslindale area parents and about 47% opt out of BPS after elementary school. There is a lot of work going on to improve the middle schools and gains have already been made.
It probably depends who you ask
What I see in Roslindale is a lot of 30 and 40 somethings who moved here from JP in order to stay in the city while raising a family. Rozzie offers better housing options for families, yet retains many of the features people enjoy about JP in their 20s. My children are in BPS schools, and we intend to go the distance. Most of my friends and neighbors are making the same choices.
There is a growing recognition, as you've pointed out, that many of the elementary school options in Boston are fairly good. Once people make that leap, they start to become more amenable to the idea that the middle schools might also be a decent option. I was very concerned about the Irving a few years ago, but now that my wife and I have taken the time to meet the principal and learn something about what is actually happening there, as opposed to the perception we had from Globe headlines a few years back, I'm actually fairly enthused that my oldest will be going there next year.
The number of people choosing BPS may have swelled due to the recession, but it is also growing because people want to raise their children in Boston, and are making a commitment to working within BPS to gain a solid educational opportunity. I'm not at all surprised that Kindergarten is over-subscribed.
My wife and I don't have any
My wife and I don't have any children but I can see this 40 year old issue coming from a mile away since we like living in the city.
I imagine Catholic school enrollment is down somewhat given anecdotal evidence that fewer people identify as Catholic in Boston and will send them to the schools. I may be way off but it could be true.
My wife is a teacher (not in Boston) and she is actually kind of bullish on Boston schools because of the microscope they are under versus some possibly subpar nearby urban and suburban districts that can slink by.
complex but good news
We're the 40somethings who moved from the suburbs to Rosi for similar reasons to what you describe vis a vis JPers moving. I can't imagine how BPS could begin to predict with any accuracy how many kids to expect in the system...enrollment does not stabilize until late September or early October anyway as parents jockey around on wait lists and others apparently discover that their kids are old enough to start school. Then, there are always new people coming throughout the year.
I suspect more and more people are recognizing that BPS has decent schools across the West Zone and there are fewer who say "West Roxbury or nothing," but that's just a theory. The whole system would benefit from less "choice," fewer options, and greater predictability--which could begin by changing the assignment process itself..as is underway.