Bombogenesis right over our heads?

‪Genesis! for aprox one hour or EXACTLY at 1:00:04‬

A storm right out of the Mutara Sector could be heading our way - or it could miss us entirely. But weatherpeople are concerned enough that we've raised shields the French Toast Alert Level to Yellow/Elevated.

Regardless of where the storm winds up, though, it's going to have some major "bombogenesis" - a scary word that means a dramatic drop in pressure - as the gathering clouds of a killer death storm begin to assemble.

As even the normally reserved forecasters at the National Weather Service note, one computer model shows a potential "EPIC SNOWSTORM/BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN NEW ENG" for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Gah! NWS, however, adds this particular computer model is a bit of an outlier, but then continues that, well, it's too early to say where this bombogenetic storm will head, although people on the Cape in particular should stay tuned for further details. But they add: "ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SNE."

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore agrees, saying that if that one model does prove right, we could see "major blizzard" in the Boston area.



    Free tagging: 


    On Weather Underground the

    By on

    On Weather Underground the chance of snow for Wednesday has dropped from 100% to 70%; so, who knows, it might actually miss us.

    Doesn't work that way

    By on

    Not sure why you think that matters.

    Right now, all they can forecast is that there is a very good chance that we will be snowbombed.

    Last I checked, that "drop" was due to the 100% splitting across two days ... so beware!

    Also, the low pressure area that provides the water? Tracking toward land - not a good sign.

    Simple point estimates will kill you every time.

    Rules of weather prediction

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    Any prediction over six hours in advance is just an educated guess. Any prediction over twelve hours in advance is just a guess.

    And a horribly wrong prediction will NEVER get a TV meterologist fired. Mispronounce the name of a city or town, however, and ....

    Not true

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    There are many long range predictions which remain accurate these days. However, the path of a snow storm or hurricane or other violent weather system is still a wrinkle in the models that we can't fully predict. Look, they know the storm is coming this way and considering that they've known that for a few days now even as the air masses involved have been located over the Southwest and the Northwest on separate trajectories, that's pretty impressive. The problem is that when those two air masses combine and form the kind of Nor'easter that drops inches of snow, then there are non-trackable effects to determine which direction the now completely new air mass takes.

    Since the direction determines whether we get 0" or 12" of snow, it seems like they're guessing. But then again, that's why THEY put probabilities on these things, even if those odds get lost in translation when the public looks back and says "hey, you promised!".