During my commute to work this morning (one in which I had to employ an undignified penguin-like shuffle to avoid slipping on the veneer of ice covering Boston’s sidewalks), I realized that the next two months are unarguably the worst time of the year.  There are no redeeming qualities of January and February, with the exception of a couple of Monday holidays.

In other words, we need to grab life in the palms of our hands and squeeze out whatever joy and optimism we can.  Here’s something to consider: the Red Sox bullpen for 2009.

It appears that the Sox are looking at adding another arm to the fray after acquiring Ramon Ramirez and Wes Littleton.  According to Nick Cafardo, they have made an offer to former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito.  Saito is older than dirt (will be 39 on Valentine’s Day) and an injury risk (suffered an elbow injury last season), but the guy has been one of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons (229 ERA+).

As it currently stands, assuming a 12 man pitching staff, the 2009 Boston bullpen is looking like this:

1. Jonathan Papelbon: 10 K/9, 1 BB/9, 198 ERA+
2. Hideki Okajima: 8.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 177 ERA+
3. Justin Masterson: 54.3% ground balls, 146 ERA+
4. Manny Delcarmen: 8.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 141 ERA+
5. Ramon Ramirez: 8.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 162 ERA+
6. Javier Lopez:  51.1% ground balls, 190 ERA+
7. Mystery Arm (Littleton, Aardsma, Saito, ect…)

Several things could happen to change this dynamic:

1) The Sox could decide to use Justin Masterson as a starting pitcher in 2009, which would open up an additional bullpen spot for one of the fringe guys such as David Aardsma, or a new aquisition such as Saito.  I’ll have more on this option later in the week.

2) A trade could occur.  The Sox are reportedly looking for a big bat via trade, and likely bargaining chips are the cost-controlled Masterson and Delcarmen.  This would obviously create more open spots in the pen.

Either way, it appears that the Sox will carry a formidable group of arms in 2009.  This is a ray of light in what has thus far been an underwhelming offseason.

Continuing the current theme of “Uninspiring Free Agent Acquisitions”, the Red Sox have reached an agreement with catcher Josh Bard. Bard, as you might remember, was the guy the team hastily jettisoned in 2006 after he had some initial trouble catching Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. With the catching situation (as well as Wakefield’s status) very much up in the air, there’s no telling what type of role Bard will have in 2009 at this point.

Anyway, I’d like to try something new here.  Nothing ground breaking, just a new template for brief player analysis projects. Bard will serve as the canary in this virtual coal mine.

Josh Bard
Catcher
Bats: Both
Throws: Right
Age: Turns 31 on 3/30/09
Last Season Performance: .202/.279/.270 in 198 plate appearances.

• Contact: For a guy who hit only .202 last year, Bard has a decent ability to put the bat on the ball. Much more so than a certain other catcher we’ve seen lately. Bard only has 202 Ks in 1467 career plate appearances. His lousy 2008 campaign can be somewhat chalked up to bad luck (or stadium effects); Bard’s batting average on balls in play was only .230.
• Power: Bard doesn’t have much pop at all.  His career slugging percentage is .395.  He’ll hit some gap shots away from Petco, but he’s not a guy who can be counted on to automatically crank a hanging breaking ball.
• Baserunning: He’s a catcher, and runs like one.
• Throwing arm: Going by anecdotal evidence, he doesn’t have a bad arm. However, runners have been stealing against him at will. Last season he threw out only 14.5% of attempted thefts, and only 6.2% (!) the year before that.
• Pitch handling: Some people are still aghast over the handful of knuckleballs that fluttered away from Bard’s grasp, prompting one of the most ill-conceived trades ever made by the Theo Epstein regime. However, all indications I can find from past teams paint Bard as a solid backstop, a guy who is praised for his tenacity. Sayeth Eric Wedge: “Josh does everything you want in a receiver as far as calling a game, handling pitchers or blocking balls in the dirt..We have a lot of young pitchers and we want Josh working with them. He’s got that knack of knowing when to get a pitcher pumped or when to get him relaxed.“  Since the trade from Boston in 2006, Bard has had only 3 passed balls in roughly 2,000 innings of catching.
• Other notes: Without turning this into a full blown Varitek-bashing session, I’ll just add that Bard’s switch hitting abilities seem to mirror those of the captain; he’s much better from the right side of the plate against left-handed pitching than vice versa.  In other words, Varitek would not make an ideal platoon mate for Josh.  Is the writing on the wall for #33?

My take: Like the Penny acquisition, this is a guy coming off an abysmal season and all indications seem to point to at least a slight improvement in 2009.  I think Josh would be an excellent fit…as a backup catcher.  Someone who can face tough lefties, and take away from the workload of someone like (ideally) Jarrod Saltalamacchia - someone who hits right-handers very well.

In the wake of the nuclear bomb dropped by New York last week, the Red Sox countered by firing a bottle rocket of their own, singing pitcher Brad Penny to a $5 million dollar deal (with another $3 million in possible incentives).

I imagine the reaction from most folks after looking up this guy’s 2008 numbers on Baseball Reference was an immediate salvo of projectile vomit.  I can’t really fault them for that; Penny was absolutely terrible last season.  However, like always, some context is needed with the numbers if we are to glean the full picture.  Brad was battling serious shoulder problems last season, and these injuries were likely the primary reason for his 95 innings of batting practice.

On a positive note: Penny’s line drive % was the roughly same in 2007 as it was in 2008.  In 2007 (when Penny was one of the best pitchers in the league), he had allowed line drives to 20.4% of the hitters he faced.  Last season, that number was 20.3%.  What really hurt Brad was a decline in his K rate to a paltry 4.6 batters per game.  However, if this can be attributed to his shoulder issues, there’s a chance it can be turned around in 2009.

Pitching coach John Farrell had mild success with his last reclamation project: Bartolo Colon.  Now, Bartolo had some other irreparable problems (both physical and mental) and hurt himself by unwisely swinging at a pitch during an interleague game, but he was surprisingly effective in his outings for both Boston and Pawtucket, showing a staggering improvement from his lost 2007 season.  With Penny, Farrell has a guy with a similar set of baggage, although not as severe as in the case of Colon: a pitcher on the heavier side with alleged work ethic issues, but a talented arm with good command when healthy.  A strong 2009 season for Penny would add yet another feather to the cap of a coach who appears to be on the fast track for a managerial/GM job in the near future (and it will be a sad day when that finally happens).

For what it’s worth, both Bill James and Marcel have some optimistic 2009 projections for Penny (though both are understandably light in the innings department):

James: 130 innings, 90 Ks, 42 BBs, 3.92 ERA
Marcel: 127 innings, 87 Ks, 48 BBs, 4.25 ERA

I’d be happy with 180 innings and an ERA around 4.50.

As I type this, Santa Claus is applying a generous dollop of lubricant to his ample figure, in hopes that he will successfully navigate your chimney without any major discomfort.  While the stockings at 4 Yawkey Way appear to be empty, let’s take comfort in the fact that the current Sox regime has a knack for utilizing under-the-radar acquisitions.  It will be interesting to see what the 25 man roster looks like 4 months from now.

• You are probably thinking to yourself, “They need to do something NOW.  Sign Adam Dunn NOW.  Trade for Jake Peavy NOW.”  Nothing should be done in desperation.  Adam Dunn fits on the Red Sox roster about as well as a tyrannosaurus rex at a children’s hospital.  Jake Peavy would cost the Sox a package including Lars Anderson (who suddenly became a bit more valuable to Boston).  Desperation is bad.  Desperation gets you Kei Igawa.  Desperation gets you $800 million in free agent commitments in a 3 year span.  Let the other guys act in desperation.
• The position the Sox should be looking to improve is catcher.  Now that Teixeira is gone, Theo Epstein is not beholden to re-sign his Yellow Jacket teammate.  While I would be happy with a Dusty Brown/George Kottaras tandem over Varitek, I think there are more attractive options to be had via trade.  The Sox have a surplus in young arms in the form of Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, and even Clay Buchholz.  While I understand how painful it is for us to part with pitching prospects, I believe this is a scenario where it is warranted.  If a one-for-one Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia deal was on the table (last I heard, Texas was asking for Buchholz plus), I’d do it.
• Whatever happened to the chick who played “Sloane” from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off?  She was hot; you’d think she would have been in more stuff.  Although, she’s probably, what, 45-years-old by now?  What a depressing thought.
• I am taking it upon myself to spearhead the 2009 “Keep Jeff Bailey” campaign.  This will prevent another Sean Casey/Mark Kotsay “Experienced Veteran” type of disaster, which I am convinced is a primary reason for 2008 ALCS loss.  Bailey can hit, he can play first base, and he can play corner outfield.  He bats right handed.  He’s cheap.  He’s a perfect fit for this roster.  An “Experienced Veteran” is only useful if he is actually…you know…useful.  I challenge you to name a more practical backup 1B solution.
• I’ve only seen commercials for the new Richard Nixon film, but I have to ask you older folks who remember him: did he really sound like Sean Connery when he spoke, or is that just an artistic liberty taken by the actor?
• We should at least take comfort in the fact that Mike Lowell appears to be progressing nicely after hip surgery.  If he is healthy, the Red Sox will again have of the strongest defensive infields in baseball (something we are not used to around these parts).

• Can you guess how many MLB players there have been with the last name “Cabrera” in baseball history?  Only 11.  I would have pegged the number a bit higher.  7 of those 11 are currently active players, and 9 of them are 21st century players.  Like Google, the baseball Cabreras are a recent phenomenon.

• I managed to catch the new James Bond installation last night.  I was slightly disappointed.  It’s not really a Bond movie, by my standards.  1) He only hooked up with one girl (most Bonds manage to bang at least 3 women.  Roger Moore would have absolutely wrecked that Bolivian girl), and 2) there were no gadgets.  No exploding pens, no heat seeking bow ties.  Just a Walther PPK and a knife.  If they want to continue going in this direction, just rename the franchise to “James Bourne” and get it over with.

• I haven’t touched upon the new road uniforms yet, so I’ll do so here: I give them a thumbs up.  I was always partial to the simple design from the late 80’s, and this is basically it (with prettier lettering).  The one thing I do not care for is the alternate “Hanging Sox” cap.  The “B” should be a standard, an impenetrable symbol of power and respect throughout the sporting world.  The team has earned it.

• Happy Holidays.

Teixeira to NY.  8 years, something like $180 million.  A no trade clause, and God knows what else.

All you can do is laugh.

Over $400 million dollars committed to three free agents this winter.  Hey, I can’t really fault anyone here.  I’m basically a free market advocate when it comes to baseball and everything else, and thus whenever the Red Sox bludgeon poorer teams with their wallet, I kick my feet up onto my desk, light up my cigar and crack a Mr. Potter-esque grin.  Bemoaning these tactics (even if they are conducted on a much larger scale) would be the ultimate hypocrisy.

In a way, I am suddenly overcome with this feeling of comfort.  Last year’s Boston/NY season series, while entertaining, was missing a certain type of electricity they once had in years past.  The Sox were clearly the better team, and the game outcomes reflected that for the most part.  People often say that Red Sox fans are happiest when they are underdogs, and sometimes I think that might be the case.  It’s certainly a familiar feeling.

This feels just like the offseason before 2004, when New York acquired Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, and Javier Vasquez.  They tried playing fantasy baseball back then, and lost in a historically embarrassing fashion.  While the Vegas bookmakers will certainly be favoring the Bronx Bombers to reclaim an AL East crown, it will be an entertaining show at the very least.

It is refreshing to see Yankees finally dispense with the whole “The Steinbrenners are no longer in control / Cashman has autonomy / We have a fixed budget / We are the Oakland A’s with money” charade.  I prefer to see them behaving like this: furiously spending as much money as they can with absolutely zero regard for the median.  They are easier to hate, and more fun to root against.  Most importantly, there will loads of good baseball played in the AL East this season.

Welcome back, old friends.

You would think we’d be used to this by now.

Every December, we are repeatedly bludgeoned over the head with non-stop rumors about major acquisitions, either through free-agent signings or blockbuster trades.  The apex of the excitement occurs in the early part of the month, when the Winter Meetings take place.  The baseball people have a couple of cocktails at the hotel lounge.  The newspaper guys do the same.  It culminates as a perfect storm of speculation through veiled hints and scotch-soaked paragraphs.  And just when we’re taken in by the cloud of excitement, just as we reach the point where hitting the “refresh” button on our internet browser becomes our primary workplace priority…there’s crickets.  Nothing happens.  Everyone boards a jet and flies home, and the rumor mill becomes dormant for weeks, save for the obligatory recycled quotes from anonymous front-office sources.

It’s the baseball equivalent of a premature ejaculation.  One side finishes, and the other side is left wanting more.

If history is any indication, the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes will likely end sometime in between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day.  While the word on the street is that the Red Sox are frontrunners to acquire the soon-to-be-extremely-wealthy athlete, I’m here to tell you that we should temper our excitement, for the sake of our long-term sanity.  While I hope Teixeira will be donning those new gray & black road uniforms this April, I’ve convinced myself that it will not happen.

Look, if we’ve learned anything in the past few months, it’s that we don’t know shit about shit.

What’s that?  You say the Yankees are hurt by the economic crises and will be cutting their spending?  Wrong, they just dropped a gazillion dollars on two pitchers, one of whom likely has Type II Diabetes and the other whose arm is attached to his shoulder with masking tape.  And guess what, Teixeira isn’t off the table, either.

What’s that?  You say the Mets will need to cut costs after their owners lost $500 million in a Ponzi scheme?  Wrong, according to the team, “This news does not affect the day-to-day operations and long-term plans of the Mets organization and the Citi Field project.”  Apparently they purchase goods and services not with USD or any other currency, but instead with some archaic pre-Mesopotamian barter system, and their new stadium will be built not with money, but with happy thoughts from the cheerful residents of Queens.

Expect the unexpected.  My prediction of where Mark Teixeria will play next season: Baltimore.  Sounds crazy, right?  As Bal’mer legend Avon Barksdale once said, “dream with me”.  See if you can imagine the following scenario:

You have an obsessive owner with a once-great franchise, a team that is now the red-headed stepchild in their division after a string of bad seasons.  This owner is watching his fan base gradually become cannibalized by the Washington Nationals (who plan on making their own play for the slugger).  He notices that not only are his enemies from D.C. about to make an offer, but there are two teams from his own division who could acquire Teixeira, a move that would guarantee his place in the cellar for the foreseeable future.  He takes a peek at his minor league system and sees that he has a young catcher who could be the best prospect in baseball (Matt Wieters), and two young pitchers who are among the best in the minor leagues (Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz) and decides that he has a window of contention for the next 6 years or so.  He says “What the hell” and swoops in with an 8-year deal that is just slightly more attractive than the offers from Boston and Anaheim.  He sells the slugger on the benefits of Baltimore: crab cakes, close to home, a young/hungry team, none of the big bad media spotlight you get in Boston.  Contract signed, end of story.  All of the sudden, the Boston Red Sox find themselves in one of the most tightly-contested divisions in the history of the current league format, and 2009 gets a little more interesting for everybody.

It’s far fetched, but I’ve convinced myself that this will happen.  Wait until January 1st before you laugh at my prediction.  By that point, you will either be laughing or crying.         

Finally, the last chapter in our offseason prospect series is here.  This was a “Chinese Democracy” moment for me, as there was a relatively long interval between this installment and the last.  In a way, it’s a good thing that I waited this long to rank the pitchers, since I’ll now be able to rank our newest Japanese import (as best as I am able given the information available to us).

After watching Clay Buchholz defile the Red Sox uniform with his 6.75 ERA last summer, it is clear that pitching prospects are the very definition of high-risk securities.  Surely, there is still hope for Clay to reach his lofty potential, but who would have predicted his abysmal 2008 campaign after he electrified Fenway Park with a no-hitter in his first career start in 2007?  After the promotions of Buchholz and Justin Masterson, the crop of Boston pitching prospects isn’t as eye-popping as it once was.  While there aren’t any untouchable blue-chippers in this list, there are some interesting guys (a couple of whom could help the big league team at some point next season).

1) Michael Bowden (RHP)
Age: 21
2008 Level: AAA

Since the Sox drafted this guy out of an Illinois high school in 2005, he’s excelled in every league he’s been placed.  While the scouts and other analysts have always been cautious with Bowden’s projections, the numbers cannot be denied.  At the age of 21, Bowden was one of the most impressive pitchers in the minor leagues last season, throwing a combined 144.1 innings of 2.62 ERA ball between AA and AAA.  Most impressively, Michael only walked 29 hitters and yielded only 10 home runs in those innings.

He doesn’t have Buchholz’s high 90’s heat, and he doesn’t Masterson’s sinker or slider.  What he does have is impeccable command of three pitches, and he’s used them to mow down minor league competition for the past 3 years.  I’ll take the scouts’ words at face value and concede that he may not have ace potential, but damn if the numbers don’t say otherwise.

2) Daniel Bard (RHP)
Age: 23
2008 Level: AA

Perhaps the exact opposite of Bowden.  While the guy described above goes about his business like a heart surgeon, Daniel Bard douses his opponents with pure napalm, leaving nothing but smoldering dirt where the batter’s box used to be.  Bard struggled mightily as a starter in 2007 before experiencing a 2008 renaissance as a relief pitcher for the Portland Sea Dogs.  He can surpass 100 MPH with his fastball, and features a slider and a changeup to supplement it.  Bard obliterated hitters with a 12.4 K/9 last year, and his control was greatly improved (but still needs refinement).  He could help in the Boston bullpen next season.

3) Nick Hagadone (LHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: Low A

An odd case.  Hagadone threw 10 innings in Low A last season before tearing his UCL (elbow ligament) and undergoing “Tommy John” surgery.  TJ surgery is a bit like space travel; it’s much safer now than it was 20 years ago.  According to the most recent news, Hagadone is progressing nicely and should be throwing this spring.  He’s a big lefty with a mid/high 90’s fastball and a plus slider, which is why he’s getting so much love from Baseball America and the like.  2009 will be a key season in his development.

4) Junichi Tazawa (RHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: N/A (Japanese Industrial League)

When Tazawa’s name first began to appear in American newspapers, he was reported to feature a 97 MPH fastball.   Although those reports were bullshit, scouts have confirmed that he has command of a fastball in the low 90’s, a forkball, a curve, and a slider.  Essentially, he’s much more comparable to Michael Bowden than he is Daisuke Matsuzaka.  He’s not MLB ready and will likely begin his American career in Portland, Maine.

5) Bryan Price (RHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: Short Season A

Drafted out of Rice University, Price has a mid-to-high 90’s fastball and a plus slider.  Price appears to be a candidate to be groomed for the bullpen, although he is still a starter for now (Soxprospects.com expects him to be in the Salem rotation next season).

Reviewing our prospect rankings for all positions, our 2009 pre-season All-Prospect Team would look a little something like this:

C - Dusty Brown
1B - Lars Anderson
2B - Chih-Hsien Chiang
3B - Michael Almanzar
SS - Argenis Diaz
LF - Josh Reddick
CF - Che-Hsuan Lin
RF - Ryan Kalish

SP - Michael Bowden
RP - Daniel Bard

Link

The New York Yankees are in the process of adding a heavyweight to their rotation, in the bulbous form of C.C. Sabathia.  It appears to be 7 year deal at $160 million.  All things considered, its a good signing for NY.  They desperately needed an established ace pitcher, and they got just that.  Offering a 7 year deal to a guy with nearly 1,700 innings under his belt might seem insane on its face, but the Yankees have the ability to swallow mistakes if need be, and their 2009 rotation has the potential to be dominant if Phil Hughes rebounds.

As Billy Crystal begins to write the screenplay based on Sabathia’s life (starring Forest Whittaker), the Red Sox now have one less major competitor for the free agent they desperately need, first baseman Mark Teixeira.  The latest rumblings out of Las Vegas say that the Red Sox are front runners to sign the All-Star, but the incumbent Anaheim Angels and the Washington Nationals (yes, them) are also involved in the bidding war.

I’m sounding like a broken record at this point, but the Red Sox lineup is not even close to what is was in 2003-2007.  There is a very real chance that the David Ortiz we grew to worship is gone and never coming back.  This team needs to stockpile lumber wherever they can, and Teixeira is the best offensive weapon on the free agent market.

This Opening Day lineup:

2B Pedroia
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
1B Teixeira
RF Drew
LF Bay
SS Lowrie
C a 5′x2′ sheet of plywood
CF Ellsbury

…at the very least has the potential to be championship caliber.  Without Teixeira, given the uncertainty that is Mike Lowell and David Ortiz, the crystal ball is quite a bit murkier.

Santa Claus will be driving a Brinks Armored Truck to the Pedroia household in Arizona this Christmas.

According to Peter Gammons on ESPN.com, the Red Sox have signed 2008 American League MVP Dustin Pedroia to a six year $40.5 million contract.  This deal eliminates his 3 arbitration years and extends him another 2 seasons beyond his original free-agent date.  The Sox then hold a 2015 team option on Pedroia, at which point he’ll be 31-years-old.

All that can be said is that it looks like a tremendous deal for the Red Sox, assuming Pedroia manages to stay healthy.  The Sox pay more up front than they need to, but will end up saving a great deal of money in arbitration and free agent costs (Pedroia would have almost certainly been awarded an 8-figure salary as soon as 2011).

He’s among the top three second basemen in baseball, and one of the premier contact hitters in the game.  This deal will keep him at the top of the Red Sox batting order throughout his prime years.  We like it.

UPDATE:  Here is the structure of the deal, per Tony Mazz at Boston.com:

Signing Bonus - $1.5 million
2009 - $1.5 million
2010 - $3.5 million
2011 - $5.5 million
2012 - $8 million
2013 - $10 million
2014 - $10 million

This payment schedule is favorable for the Sox (Finance 101: it’s better to pay less now and more later).

If you are in the New England region, and you often engage fellow sports fans in general conversation as part of your daily routine, you might notice a growing trend in conversation topics.  It usually goes something like this:

Jimmy: “Good morning! Fill it up, please.”

Gas Station Attendant: “Okay, which octane?”

Jimmy: “Let’s see.  I think I’ll take the cheap stuff. 89, please.”

Gas Station Attendant: “Sure thing!  Hey, did you catch the Bruins last night?”

Jimmy: (slowly sinking into my seat) “Jeez, no…I had to…”

Gas Station Attendant: “Dude, You are totally missing out.  They are the best team no one knows about.”

Jimmy: (looks down in shame) “Yeah, I’ve been meaning to…”

Gas Station Attendant: “No, You don’t understand.  Listen to me.  Hey! Look at me when I’m talking to you.  YOU ARE MISSING OUT.”

Jimmy: “Yeah, sorry, I…”

Gas Station Attendant: “No, no. You know what? You know what?  F&@$ YOU!  I’m not giving you gas.  There’s a Gulf station down the street, maybe they have time to put up with your bullshit.  Take your little condescending car, and your attitude, and get the f#@* out of my gas station.  How about that?”

Jimmy: “Okay. Look, I’m sorry if I somehow offended…”

Gas Station Attendant: (begins pouring gasoline all over my car): “Hey, no problem man.  It’s cool.  You just don’t appreciate GOOD HOCKEY when you see it.  Hey, no worries.  It’s all good.  (aims nozzle at my face, pours gasoline all over me).

Jimmy: (soaked in gasoline) “Hey!  Stop that!”

Gas Station Attendant:  (lights match) “So, the Bruins are boring, huh?  You know what else must be boring to you?  Life.  So, the Bruins do not deserve your attention?  You do not deserve to breathe my oxygen.  Adios, asshole. (tosses lit match in my car).

Jimmy: (engulfed in flames): AAAAAAHHHHHHH!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!! YOU’RE CRAZY!!!  SOMEBODY HELP ME!!! AAAHHHHHHH!!!

Yup, that’s a true story.  Here’s the thing, I know the Bruins are a good team, and they are probably exciting to watch, but like many Americans, hockey is a foreign sport to me.  Like soccer, and that Canadian game where they push hubcaps across the ice with squeegees, it’s something that I do not have familiarity with, not nearly enough to maintain interest at this point.  This is a behavior that has been ingrained in me since early youth, and I cannot just flip on a switch and decide to follow hockey.Maybe if they had a consistent streak of competitiveness, like the other Big 3 Teams in this town, things would be different.  But, that simply hasn’t happened, not in my lifetime.  Between work, life, the Sox, and everything else, there just isn’t enough room in my cerebral cortex.

Memo to the Hockey Missionaries, (those of you trying in vain to spread the gospel of the Yellow and Black to the unwashed pagan masses like myself): I acknowledge that the Bruins have a young team which might be competitive for a while.  I’m simply not going to carve out time in my daily schedule to watch them a this point in my life.  How about we compromise? If they are on TV at a bar, I’ll occasionally glance at the screen.  I’m not going to memorize the entire roster, but I might be able to name the goalie and a handful of other guys.  I’m not going to remember every key play from the game, but I’ll memorize a few talking points, enough to feign interest during water cooler conversations.

Maybe that’s not the response you are looking for.  But it’s a start.

When writing this particular blog entry, I’m reminded of an empty bottle of shampoo.

You see, I’m chronically lazy when it comes to mundane household tasks, such as cooking, cleaning, and shopping for toiletries.  In the case of shampoo, when the bottle becomes hollow and devoid of that syrupy hair-cleaning nectar, I’ll just fill it with water and shake.  The resulting product might be thin and unsatisfying to my lice-infested scalp, but at least it’s something.

In terms of middle infield prospects, the Red Sox front office has spent the past 2 years squeezing that plastic bottle, and the thick aromatic goo gushed into the palms of our hands (in the form of Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie).  We are now sitting here with an empty bottle, and I’m going to do what any like minded gentleman would do.  Add water and shake.  Here is what we get:

1) Argenis Diaz - SS
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

After watching Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo kick the ball around the dirt at Fenway for the past 3 years, Red Sox fans have been longing for the days of Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gonzalez, and young Nomar Garciaparra, slick fielders who would provide us with those rare, coveted stones known as “web gems”.  Well, according to scouting reports, Argenis Diaz is one of those guys.  An elite defensive shortstop who has great range, a great arm, and terrific instincts.  I managed to see him play a game in Portland, and from what I saw in between sips of my Geary’s Summer Ale, the guy was impressive.

Offensively, he’s become a decent contact hitter, but lacks power (only 4 career home runs in 2 full minor league seasons).  Still, hitting .288 in the Eastern League as a 21-year-old is just fine, considering his key strength is his glove.  He’s young, and will probably repeat the year at Portland.  If you can, try to catch a game at Hadlock field, as defense is best graded in person.

2) Oscar Tejeda - SS
Age: 18
2008 Level: Low A

Tejeda gets his high ranking due to how he handled himself in the Sally League as an 18-year-old: hitting .261/.301/.347 and displaying tremendous tools.  He’s very raw and has difficulty with things that teenagers usually have difficulty with in the minors: hitting breaking balls, hitting for power, and making accurate throws.  There’s a chance he’ll be converted to a 3B in the next year or two, but we won’t make any assumptions until the move happens.

3) Yamaico Navarro - SS
Age: 21
2008 Level: High A

Yamaico burst onto the prospect map this summer after his excellent play following a promotion to High-A Lancaster.  The energetic infielder hit .348/.393/.508 in 231 plate appearances, albeit with a lot of strikeouts.  Like George Jefferson, Yamaico is “movin’ on up” on many experts’ lists, including that of John Sickles (#9 in the system).  His 2009 home depends on that of Diaz.  If Argenis Diaz repeats AA, Yamaico will likely repeat High-A, this time in Salem, Virginia.

4) Chih-Hsien Chiang - 2B
Age: 20
2008 Level: High-A

Chiang is part of a growing phenomenon in modern baseball: a second baseman who can hit.  His one weakness at the plate is his discipline, but at age 20 there is still plenty of time to work on that particular tool.  He’s big for a 2B (6′2″), and could develop more power and eventually become an offensive threat at the MLB level, especially if he can stick at second.  From what I hear, that “if” is still very much an “if”, as his defense needs work (17 errors in 60 games at 2B).

5) Derrik Gibson - SS
Age: 18
2008 Level: SS-A

The one thing we know for sure about Derrik: he can run.  The 2nd round draft pick managed to swipe 16 bases in his 41 game professional debut, without being caught once.  Offensively and defensively, he has the tools, but we’ll wait to see how they translate to the box score during a full season in the Sally League in 2009.

Last, but definitely not least, will be the ranking of pitching prospects.  Stay tuned.

We now enter one of the most crucial phases of the offseason for the Red Sox, as it is possible that they could secure as many as 4 first round draft picks for the 2009 amateur draft.

The Sox are expected to offer arbitration to Type A free agent Jason Varitek, and possibly Type B free agent Paul Byrd.  In both cases, the team is hoping that the players decline, which would result in the Sox being awarded extra draft picks next June.  A part of me feels dirty for desperately hoping that Jason Varitek, an iconic member of this franchise in the past decade, will leave town.  But then I remember the insane demands of his agent (”Jorge Posada money”) in spite of his declining production and advanced age.  And thus, it is my hope that another team gives the veteran catcher the multi-year deal he desires.

The list of past compensation draft picks is an illustrious one.  It Includes names such as Jacoby Ellsbury, David Wright, and Joba Chamberlain.  The Sox could walk away from this arbitration week with a handful of lottery tickets, the prize in this sweepstakes being a crop of players who might shape the league for years.

Bon voyage, Mr. Varitek.

NOTE:  My apologies for the slow week, as my Thanksgiving food coma was a particularly long one (72 hours or so).  We’ll finish up the prospect rankings this week, and delve into some free agent analysis.

***  I’ve been hinting at my feelings on this topic in recent posts, but I’ll directly sum up my opinion now: priority #1 for GM Theo Epstein should be the pursuit of free agent Mark Teixeira.  I think we’ve been spoiled in the past 5 years by the combination of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, a duo which ranks among the best 3-4 tandems in baseball history.  Manny, of course, is gone.  As for Ortiz, I think we need to come to terms with the grim possibility that his 2003-2006 production is not going to repeat itself.  A lack of offense is what ultimately ended the 2008 season, and Teixeira provides an immediate boost in that department.  Will this be an expensive move?  As the governor of Alaska would say: “You betcha!”.  However, the Red Sox have the financial strength to pull it off.

***  Given the above proposition, you might ask yourself “Whither Mike Lowell?”.  1) He’s a huge question mark after having hip surgery, so his 2009 production should not be counted on as a guarantee. 2) His contract can be eaten with a side of onion rings for all I care.  When the deal was inked last year, we knew there would be a possibility that this would have to happen.  If healthy, he can be a right-handed counterpart to our DH who will likely need more time off as he ages.

***  I’m hoping the Sox do not have any serious interest in Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett, two overpriced gambles.  Make a few ceremonious offers to drive up the price for teams like the Yankees and Angels, but then walk away.  If they are going to spend big…well, I’m starting to repeat myself here.

***  Speaking of pitchers, instead of targeting guys who are old and/or injury-prone, why not make a run at Junichi Tazawa instead?  Word on the street is that the Sox do indeed have some interest in the 22-year-old, and he could prove to be cheaper and more effective than either Lowe or Burnett.

***  While I’m on the subject of pitchers from The Land of Weird Cartoons, here’s some bad news for Red Sox fans: Daisuke Matsuzaka is planning on pitching in the 2009 World Baseball Classic.  Given his track record of usage in Japanese baseball, I’m guessing that his innings total this winter will be enough to make Iron Joe McGinnity wince.  While I love the WBC in theory,  I’m not a fan of accelerating the depreciation rate on one of our most valuable pitchers.

***  Congrats to Dustin Pedroia, a reasonable choice for MVP.  There was a handful of four players who could have justifiably won the award, and a Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo at second base is certainly worthy enough.  I just think Kevin Youkilis should have received a bit more love from the press on this one.  His versatility and offensive consistency kept the team afloat during the some critical times.  He’s simply not as marketable as Pedroia, and the fan/media coverage and voting reflected that.

***  The trading of Coco Crisp creates an even greater for someone like Rocco Baldelli.  And by “someone like Rocco Baldelli”, I mean an experienced outfielder who can hit, is preferably right-handed, and wouldn’t mind not starting every game.  In other words, Rocco Baldelli.

***  I’m late to the party on this one, but if you haven’t seen the AMC series Mad Men, you are missing the best show on television.  If you need a reason, here’s two.  The storyline and the characters?  Oh yeah, they’re decent too.

***  Dusty Brown Update: he’s hitting .247/.381/.318 in the Dominican Winter League.  Great eye, but the lack of power is alarming (only 4 extra-base hits).  I still think he should get a chance to win the 2009 catching job assuming no trades are made to acquire catchers, and I have no delusions as to how he’ll hit at the MLB level.  If he gets on base and plays defense as advertised, I’m fine with a guy who slugs around .400.

***  F&@* the cold weather.

In an effort to save time (and because the crop is extremely top-heavy at both positions), I’m combining the Red Sox prospect ranking of first basemen and third baseman.  In case you missed them, check out the rankings of outfield prospects and catching prospects in the Boston minor league system.

Let’s get down to business:

1) Lars Anderson (1B)
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

No surprises here.  Lars in generally considered the top prospect in the entire minor league system, and one of the top offensive prospects in all of baseball.  Last season, the big question was whether he hit after being promoted from the launching pad environment in Lancaster to the unforgiving tundra that is Portland, and he responded by dominating the Eastern League (.316/.436/.526) at the age of 20.

He still needs to develop some power to go along with his massive frame, and he still has trouble making contact, but these issues tend to fix themselves as hitters mature.  As with any prospect, Anderson should not be considered a sure thing (i.e., the team should not be basing their current free-agent decisions on what Anderson might become). That being said, the ceiling for Lars is superstardom, and he could arrive as early as 2010.  Hell, Boston already has a park named after him.

2) Michael Almanzar (3B)
Age: 17
2008 Level: Low A

The kid who received the highest bonus for an international free agent in the history of the Boston Red Sox ($1.5 million) wasted no time impressing scouts by hitting .348/.414./472 in the Gulf Coast League debut last season.  He was then promoted to Low-A Greenville, where he appeared to be overmatched by the much-older competition.  He’s a raw pedrigree, and needs to develop both physically and on the field, but he’s another guy who has the frame and the swing to become an elite offensive player.  He’ll repeat Low-A, and his performance bears watching.

3) Will Middlebrooks (3B)
Age: 20
2008 Level: SS-A

A much more polished and well-rounded player than Almanzar, but his ceiling is lower and he’s three years older.  Middlebrooks is a tremendously versatile athlete who can run, throw, and hit.  He initially struggled in his professional debut at Lowell, but seemed to come into his own after the All-Star Break, hitting .298/.353/.468.  It will be interesting to see how the Greenville Drive roster is constructed, as both Middlebrooks and Almanzar appear to be groomed for third base.  I suppose you could take a chance and try Middlebrooks in High-A Salem, but he’s raw for the Carolina League and might be overmatched.  We’ll see how the Sox play it.

4) Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Age: 19
2008 Level: Low-A

The 6th round draft pick from 2007 got everyone’s attention by busting out of the gate in 2008, hitting .373/.402/.446 before being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in May.  The belief was that Rizzo would make a full recovery after 6-8 months of treatment. Since he’s been out of the public eye during his recovery, little is known regarding his progress.  We’re working under the assumption that the early prognosis was accurate, and Rizzo will be able to take the field in the spring of 2009.  Rizzo projects to be a decent all-around first baseman, handy with the glove and the bat.

5) Aaron Bates (1B)
Age: 24
2008 Level: AA

A few paragraphs above, I mentioned that this crop of prospects is extremely top-heavy.  Here’s a perfect example, as the difference in value and talent drops precipitously from #3 to #5.  There was a time when Bates was considered a solid first base prospect, but now it appears that his monster offensive season in 2007 might have been smoke-and-mirrors, a function of the hitter-friendly park and Bates’ advanced age.  His one area of strength is plate discipline, and he still has some power potential, but Bates is well below guys like Chris Carter and Jeff Bailey on the 1B organizational depth chart.  His ceiling is that of an “AAAA” auxiliary bat, and he still has some work to do to get there.

Next up, we’ll tackle middle infielders, before ending the prospect rankings with the pitchers.

The trade of CF Coco Crisp for Royals reliever Ramon S. Ramirez has been confirmed.  What do we make of it?

Personally, my feelings on the deal are mixed, but slightly leaning towards a thumbs-up.  One one hand, the Red Sox are giving away more than they are getting in terms of pure value.  Coco Crisp might be the best defensive center fielder I’ve seen in a Red Sox uniform.  Although Coco is about average offensively, his skill set is such that he could probably be the starting CF for 12-15 MLB teams.  Not to mention, he’s relatively cheap.  Surely he has more value than a 70 inning reliever.

On the other hand, they are dealing a superfluous commodity for someone who will hopefully be a key bullpen piece in 2008.  Coco was expendable, and other teams knew they had the upper hand in any trade talks.  His value was discounted accordingly.  While I would have preferred Crisp to have been used in a package with prospects to acquire a young catcher, the grim reality is that teams are not willing to easily part with those guys.  In the end, the Red Sox should be happy with what they are getting, a strikeout pitcher who can face both left-handers and right-handers.  A guy who slightly resembles “Bodie” from The Wire.

Here’s Theo’s take on the new acquisition:

In Ramirez, we believe we’ve acquired a young, controllable reliever that can really help our bullpen. He has a plus fastball, 92-95 mph, and an outstanding power changeup. A lot of people think it’s a split, [but] it’s actually a changeup, 87-88 [mph], that’s a swing-and-a-miss pitch for him against left-handed and right-handed hitters. And [he has] a pretty good slider to go with it.

All PR aside, the 26-year-old’s numbers speak for themselves:  8.4 strikeouts per 9 innings over his career, a 2.3 K/BB ratio, and a 127 ERA+.

This deal answers the question of who would be the Boston center fielder next season (and we all had a feeling this would be the case).  Is Ellsbury overrated by most Red Sox fans?  Probably - but his most glaring weakness (plate discipline) is one that can be improved upon with the increased playing time he will now surely receive.  He has the potential to be a fine long-term answer in the outfield at Fenway.  While Jacoby Ellsbury was inconsistent at times in 2008, his raw talent and his high ceiling was evident for all to see.  In an “off-year”, the outfielder hit a pedestrian .280/.336/.394, but excelled in other areas (50/61 SB attempts, good CF defense, 72 Runs Created per the Hardball Times), and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year ballot.  If he learns how to protect the strike zone a bit more, we could have one of the better lead-off hitters in the American League here.

Aside from handing the CF keys to Ellsbury, this deal also raises an interesting question regarding the pitching staff.  The Sox can go in two directions here:

1. They can keep the bullpen as-is, a group which might be one of the best in the league. Okajima, Delcarmen, Masterson, Papelbon, and now Ramirez would be a difficult crew to face in the late innings.  Last season, these guys posted ERA+ numbers of 177, 141, 146, 198, and 162 respectively.
2. They could convert Justin Masterson back into a starting pitcher, thus getting more innings out of one of the best young pitchers in the system, and saving a lot of money in the free agent market (no A.J. Burnett, ect).  The team could then spend money on something else.

Option 2 is what I’m hoping for.  It is less likely, simply because converting a reliever to a starter in one winter isn’t as easy as it seems on paper.  The team would likely need someone to fill in as a 5th starter in the beginning of the year while Masterson is slowly integrated into the rotation (a Michael Bowden type).  I say it’s worth a shot.  Why not utilize the young pitching staff that’s been built up over the past 5 years, and spend the big bucks on what the team really needs and does not have in the minors: a big bat.

According to a sports radio station in Kansas City (relayed to yours truly via Rotoworld), the Red Sox have shipped Coco Crisp to the Royals for reliever Ramon Ramirez.  I’m hoping the report is accurate at this point, because I just sponsored his Baseball Reference page for the bargain basement price of $10, and it would be quite embarrasing if my sawbuck were wasted on a false rumor.

My thoughts on the deal later.

The item currently on the front burner of the 2009 Hot Stove Season is a potential Red Sox-Tigers trade.  The deal would send one of Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson (both starting pitchers) to the Sox for SS Julio Lugo.

While many Red Sox fans might relish the idea of shipping the much-maligned Lugo out of town, it is my belief that GM Theo Epstein should run away from this deal as fast as his pasty white legs can take him.  Maybe even spit in the face of Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski beforehand, for posterity.

The two pitchers on the table, Robertson and Willis, have one thing in common.  They’ve both performed gradually worse over the past 3 years, culminating in horrible 2008 campaigns.  Dontrelle suffered an extreme case of the yips, walking 35 hitters in 24 innings in between a couple of merciful minor league “rehab” stints, and Robertson spent his summer pitching 168 innings of batting practice to eager American League hitters, posting a 7.95 ERA on the road.

You say you hate Julio Lugo?  Let me explain something to you: until you watch either of these two men pitch in a Red Sox uniform - you don’t know what hatred is.  There many reasons not to do this deal, the biggest of which is the fact that there are more attractive 5th starter options out there, some of which are already in-house (Buchholz, Bowden, maybe even Masterson).

I’m lobbying for Julio Lugo to return to the Red Sox next season.  Here’s why:

1. His trade value is at an all-time low, and the team would be forced to accept expensive garbage in return (see above).
2. He can be used in a utility infielder role, replacing Alex Cora’s embalmed cadaver on the roster as the backup SS, 2B, and occasional 3B.  Lugo is a better player than Cora in most measurable areas.

Yes, this deal would help Detroit, but it makes zero sense for the Red Sox.  Let’s not do them any favors.

In case you missed it, check out my ranking of Boston’s top 5 catching prospects here.

In my next installment, we’ll cover outfielders, an area where the Sox have a bit more minor league depth.  Most of the guys on the list are raw talents at this point.  They have high ceilings, but quite a ways to go before they are ready to ply their trade in front of the green walls at 4 Yawkey Way.

1) Josh Reddick
Age: 21
2008 Level: AA

The 21-year-old could be one of the steals of the 2006 draft after the Red Sox selected him in the 17th round.  The corner outfielder was one of the best players in the Sally League in 2007, and was mashing in the California League last season before being promoted to Double-A Portland.  Reddick then struggled to hit in the pitching-rich Eastern League, but considering his age and his criminally low BABIP (.218 by my calculations), we’ll give him a mulligan and watch him closely in 2009.

He’s one of the few long ball threats within Boston’s minor league organization, and his K-rate has been excellent for a power hitter (only 133 strikeouts in 912 career plate appearances).  Reddick’s talent also translates to the field, where he’s drawn rave reviews for his instincts and throwing arm.  The one hole in his game is his tendency to swing at everything, but with his low K rate it’s not a monumental concern.  The best outfield prospect in the system.

2) Che-Hsuan Lin
Age: 20
2008 Level: Low-A

The toolsy Lin made headlines in the Bronx this summer by winning the Futures Game MVP at Yankee Stadium and evoking boos from the citizens of Back Hair Nation.  The 20-year-old might have the highest ceiling of any outfielder in the system, but he is still very raw (he has trouble hitting off-speed pitches, for example).  Lin’s athleticism gives us plenty to be excited about, and he should be patrolling CF next year for the new High-A affiliate in Salem, Virginia.

3) Ryan Kalish
Age: 20
2008 Level: High-A

Ryan was a rising star within the organization in 2007, hitting .368/.471/.540 at Lowell before breaking his hamate bone (wrist).  He came back in 2008 to produce decent numbers in Greenville, and struggled once promoted to High-A Lancaster.  Kalish is similar to Lin; great tools, modest power potential, still 3 or 4 years from the majors.  He’ll likely be playing alongside Lin at Salem in what should be a very exciting team to watch.

4) Ryan Westmoreland
Age: 18
2008 Level: N/A

My ranking of the Ocean State native might be a tad low, as I tend to discount players who have yet to appear in a professional game.  The folks at Baseball America, who admittedly are more familiar with Ryan than I am, call him the best athlete in the entire system, and the #7 Boston prospect overall.  Ryan is yet another high-ceiling player who has impressive tools but still a long way to go in the system (are you sensing a trend here?).  The Sox pried him away from Vanderbilt University with a $2,000,000 bonus, and hope to see their investment yield some impressive results in Greenville next season.

5) Zack Daeges
Age: 24
2008 Level: AA

We’re bucking the trend a bit here, as Daeges is quite a bit different than the kids listed above him.  He’s a polished hitter with good plate discipline, but not much in the way of tools or athleticism.  He’s not young, and thus his ceiling is lower and more visible than the likes of Lin, Kalish, and Westmoreland.  While Daeges is a man without a true position, his offensive prowess cannot be denied.  His career professional line is .314/.415/.504.  Look for him in Pawtucket next season, in what will be one of the best offensive teams in minor league baseball.

Next up: Corner Infielders

As you wait for that severance paycheck to get deposited into your overdrawn bank account, here’s some good news.  Sensing that the typical baseball fan will be less solvent this year than in years past, the Boston Red Sox have elected to not raise ticket prices in 2009, the first price freeze in 14 years.  If you needed an indicator to tell you that this country is in a full blown recession, there you have it.  The Red Sox have a strict policy where they only freeze prices in the following scenarios:

1. A nuclear conflict of some sort, resulting in a “Mad Max” like scenario where New England becomes giant desert ruled by outlaw motorcycle gangs.
2. The giant Tesla ball in the Museum of Science goes haywire and zaps the dinosaur fossils, causing them to come alive and rampage through the city.
3. Everyone is poor and miserable. (I.e. a recession)

So, while you wait for that fun phone call from your bankruptcy attorney, take comfort in the fact that a day at Fenway Park will only cost you $127.75, lukewarm Bud Lights and e-coli dogs included!  Just like last year!