Chris Snyder signing a long-term deal with the D-Backs could renew talks of trading Miguel Montero to Boston. Montero and Josh Bard would make for an upgrade with the bat over Tek v2008.

Bard is a nice pickup. In 2006 and 2007, he just hit the crap out of the ball. Last year, Bard was hurt and his production fell off. He could be in line for a little bit of a comeback season.

Brad Penny is an okay signing. It is certainly not the high upside play most are describing the signing.

He is unlikely to be an upgrade over the 2008 Sox primary trio of fifth starters. Colon, Buchholz and Byrd over 30 GS and 164 innings averaged 6.8 K/9, 2.05 K/BB and gave up 24 homers. In Penny's best year - 2006, he put up a 7.0 K/9, 2.74 K/BB and gave up 19 dingers over 189 innings. The former Marlin and Dodger pitched marginaly better, but did so two years ago, prior to his 2008 injury, in a prime age 28 season, in the NL and playing his home games in a pitcher's park. In 2006, Penny had every advantage. In 2009, he won't have any. Unless the scouts see something that can be fixed, it would be surprising to see Penny have a better line the Sox #5s in 2008.

A YEAR TOO LATE TO GET HANLEY RAMIREZ

The Red Sox made a play to re-acquire Marlins superstar Hanley Ramirez after losing out to the rival Yankees for star free agent Mark Teixeira, league sources tell SI.com. But while the Marlins listened to Boston's overtures, Florida isn't anxious to trade its best player, and talks apparently have been aborted after no agreement could be reached.

If the Sox wanted Ramirez, they should have been on him last winter prior to the Marlins inking him to a Dustin Pedroia like club friendly contract. It seems like the Sox hibernated last winter. If my memory is correct, they were not involved at all with acquiring arguably a better hitter and long-term investment - Miguel Cabrera - than Teixeira. Cabrera is younger, has better comparables, would have cost less to lock up than T-Rex and the Olde Towne Team would have had an him 2008. The Tiger is far from perfect but the Sox should have been on him and not what appears to be asleep at the wheel last winter.

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that…“Brad Penny and the Boston Red Sox are close to agreeing on a one-year deal, according to a major-league source.”

The Sox appear to be taking on another rehabbing veteran to fill the backend of the rotation. The terms of the deal have to be known before making an educated assessment of the possible transaction, but no Sox fan should expect the 2007 Penny. Penny just isn’t that good. No way he gives up only nine dingers over 200 plus innings again.

Between the foursome at the top, possibly Penny, Masterson, Buchholz and Bowden, the Sox should have enough depth in the rotation. Although adding Smoltz could be a low risk-high upside acquisition as a starter or reliever.

THE GOOD, BAD AND A QUESTION REGARDING TEIXEIRA

Mark Teixeira not signing a four plus year contract with the Sox is good, but inking a deal with the MFY is bad as it makes the head-to-head games versus the Evil Empire and T.B. Devils much more important. Three teams will be vying for only two playoff spots.

The MFY signing the Depending on a MFY everyday lineup, T-Rex could be a four to five win improvement over Melky Cabrera (Nick Swisher would play center instead of first). That is double the projected win increase for the Sox and coupled with their superior incremental revenue made signing T-Rex a no brainer. Unlike the Sox, the Evil Empire should make enough in the first few years of Teixeira’s deal to offset any potential losses in the back end of the contract.

If the Sox were so hot-to-Trot Nixon over T-Rex for two years, it seems that the Sox did not plan well for the opportunity (i.e. offering a competitive contract to Mike Lowell), which is contrary to their focus.

"It can be a challenge to maintain a healthy, long-term outlook when the market is so intense and so focused on short-term rewards, like winning that night's game," Epstein said. "For the most part—a few of my personal mistakes aside—I think we've done a decent job of disciplining ourselves to see the big picture, always asking ourselves, 'How does this move affect us for the next five years . . . does this reinforce what we are trying to do long-term?'"

So where the Sox not whole heartedly in it to Teixeira? Was a real $170 million contract offer ever on the table or was it all non-binding correspondence? We’ll likely never know the answer.

SOX REACH AGREEMENT WITH MARK TEIXEIRA?

Sources have confirmed to Sons of Simmons, that the Boston Red Sox have agreed in principle to an eight-year deal with first basemen Mark Teixeira.

FYI - I’ve never heard of the Sons of Simmons before tonight. Neither the Globe or Herald is reporting a deal, nor any other MSM outlet, as far as I know. I’m just telling the facts. Like when every columnist takes the easy way out, which could be the correct one - I don’t know, by vilifying Scott Boras for not accepting the Sox offer of arbitration to Varitek. But no one reports that Tek is going through a divorce and may need additional cash or that the Captain made the final decision during his last round with the Sox, as far as we know. I’m just saying…well…you know…Happy Festivus! My airing of grievances and other random rumblings should be out before the new year. It is sad that I haven’t celebrated Festivus for a number of years now.

JOHN HENRY DOES NOT BLUFF

“We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him,” Sox principal owner John Henry wrote in an e-mail to media members. After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor.”

Henry’s statement should not be construed as a bluff. As I said back at the end of October,

“The small upgrade over Lowell, the lack of incremental revenue streams, the presence of options with more value in the short and long-term, and the loss of financial flexibility thereby limiting future more pressing acquisitions makes a Sox signing of Teixeira highly unlikely... Theo and the Trio make rational decisions and signing T-Rex would be just the opposite.”

Let me expand…

From 2009 to 2011, a T-Rex acquisition and subsequent trade of Lowell COULD equal out or even slightly benefit the Sox. But when the $160+ million first baseman is entering his age 32 season, Teixeira’s forecast becomes more volatile.

Below is a summary of Teixeira’s top ten comparable hitters through the age of 28 in order from most to least.

1) Carlos Delagdo has had mostly above average to MVP type years after his age 31 season. He has been up-and-down.

2) Kent Hrbek was above average from age 31-33 with his last season being an average hitter at 99 OPS+.

3) Fred McGriff was average to good after the age of 30. Like Delagdo, he was inconsistent from year to year.

4) Other than Jim Thome’s lost season and last year at the age of 37, he has been the model of a very good and consistent hitter posting OPS+ of 144 to 155 from the age of 32.

5) Will “The Thrill” Clark was an above average from the age of 32 to 35.

6) Jeff Bagwell produced an OPS+ of 152 in his age 32 season, and then 139, 135, 128, and 115.

7) The only old-timer and HOFer, Willie McCovey, was up-and-down after the age of 32 season. It would seem McCovey was sick in 1970, his age 32 year, hitting 289/444/612 and an OPS+ 181.

8) Richie Sexson has flopped since his age 30 season when he produced a 144 OPS+.

9) Shawn Green has been an average hitter since the age of 29.

10) Paul Konerko has declined since his age 30 season in 2006 going from a 134 OPS+ to 102 last year.

If we use Teixeira’s comparables as a guide for his projection, then we can conclude one of two routes: 1) He could have up-down above average to very good years through his age 33-36 season like Delgado, McGriff, Clark, and McCovey, or 2) Teixeira could steadily decline similar to Hrbek, Bagwell, Sexson, Green, Konerko. Since Thome is a positive outlier and group 1 has a slightly higher average similarity score, Teixeira having up-down above average to very good seasons in his mid-30’s is slightly better than a coin flip. Regardless, Teixeira from age 33-36 is a big gamble. He could decline each season and become a roster albatross or be an average-to-very good first baseman from year-to-year.

This type of forecast in the last half of a long-term deal is not unusual. Teixeira is a typical very good corner slugger. He is not historically odd and great like Alex Rodriguez or to a lesser extent, Albert Pujols (who will be a free agent after the 2011 season). With these super freaks an exception to objective analysis could be rationally made, since the above production forecast is highly variable due to few good comparable players. For comparison purposes, Teixeira’s top ten ranged from 935-899, Mike Lowell’s 923-895 and A-Hole’s 775-638.

With long-term deals, the projected gains in the first few seasons should offset the riskier production and cloudier revenue and team forecasts in the later part of the agreement. The first three years of a potential T-Rex contract is unlikely to gain a ROI large enough to offset the risk after the age of 33. Hence, Henry and the Sox are making the right decision.

IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!



Keith Law, former Toronto Blue Jay Special Assistant to the General Manager, in the video above tells us the basic thought process regarding the signing of free agents. The question is how many additional wins will Player X produce and those wins will bring in $Y millions. The club’s contract offer should be less than the $Y millions, in most cases. And the volatility in the economy is making it very difficult to forecast $Y millions for teams.

It appears Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said so much to the most underrated Boston media member, Nick Cafardo.

"We're in a situation where the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays have had to lay off employees. So we have to be mindful of that. There are projections we made a few weeks ago that have already changed. There's that, and also the fact that there are teams who spent south of $100 million on their payroll who made the playoffs and played in the World Series."

With attendance being the most variable and vulnerable revenue stream, the Red Sox stand to gain an advantage over other teams as their $Y million projection has a higher level of confidence than their competitors. The Sox sell out record indicates that demand for tickets is great than supply giving them less of a projection range than any other club.

The stumbling economy should provide the Sox with the opportunity to be even more aggressive than normal. With this in mind, the Olde Towne Team should either make a big splash (Sabathia, Teixeira) or wait for bargains after the holiday season. But no middle ground - just say no to D-Lowe, Burnett, etc.

ARBITRATION DECISIONS

The Sox will offer arbitration to Tek. The conventional thinking is that Tek will not accept arbitration as he is seeking a multi-year contract, but the real question is: can he find that deal. Not many clubs have $20 million to spend and want to forfeit a draft pick on a 36 year-old catcher coming off his worse season at the plate. Without that possibility, Tek could earn more through the arbitration process as they could consider past performance more than the market. Accepting the Sox offer arbitration could be the best for Tek’s wallet.

The same can be said about Paul Byrd’s situation. Currently, the Sox need a fifth and reliable (a.k.a. 30 GS) starter like the vacancy at catcher. Byrd is a 37 year-old pitcher coming off a so-so season. He may be able to squeeze a two-year deal from a club, as clubs can never have enough pitchers. But in this economic climate, it may not be worth more than the virtually risk free one-year $7 million deal he will likely get from the Sox.

From the Sox perspective, nearly any one-year contract is worth the risk when the reward is draft pick compensation. The economic value of a top selection in June outweighs the poor performing one-year contract for the Sox. Since the Olde Towne Team has opening at both positions - catcher and fifth starter, it should be no brainer to offer arbitration to both Tek and Byrd.

DOUBLE PLAY

* NPB TRACKER.com that covers Japanese baseball reports that the Sox made a $6 million offer for Junichi Tazawa.

* Buster Olney via mlbtraderumors.com said…"The Red Sox are preparing, full-steam ahead, to play 2009 without Jason Varitek."

If the Sox ink T-Rex and Tazawa, I've got the feeling the makings of a blockbuster with the Rangers could happen over the winter meetings. The teams match up well.

REALLY?

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus wrote:

The Red Sox plan to outbid everyone, including the Yankees and Angels, for free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, unless someone comes in with an offer of $200 million or more.

DON’T DISAPPOINT

If the Sox do not have another trade in the works, then I will be very upset. They did not need to move Coco at the start of the winter for a power reliever VERSUS RIGHT-HANDED BATTERS. Southpaws hit 300/360/375 in 2008 and 274/339/460 in 2006 off of Ramon Ramirez; he was hurt in 2007. The Sox have a Ramirez and his name is Justin Masterson. BTW, Masterson is not more than a fifth starter for the Sox, but is better utilized as a high leveraged reliever against RHB. The trade appears to relieve one redundancy with another - albeit valuable redundancies in both cases, as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Masterson are question marks.

Even though Peter Gammons states that “surprisingly” only the Reds and Coco’s new employer - the Royals - had interest, demand should have increased as the holidays approached. The White Sox, Cubs, Padres (the Pads could have or still plan to acquire a Braves CF in a deal for Jake Peavy, which may put Atlanta in the market) along with the aforementioned two teams have vacancies or need to upgrade in center with nothing more than a platoon partner on the free agent market. (The Other Sox, in particular, as they ended the experiment of Nick Swisher in centerfield should have been active. With Javy Vazquez on the block, a deal with Coco and another(s) should have been discussed.) Edmonds, Baldelli, Kotsay, and Payton sound like a better law firm than an option for a full-time centerfield job.

It appears that the Sox took the first reasonable deal that came along for Coco. It also provides them with an asset - Ramirez or Masterson - that more teams could find useful than a league average centerfielder. This trade could bring in a bigger fish, like a catcher or starter, in a week or two. But it does look like the Sox could have held out for something more useful rather than trying to pull off another transaction in the future.

THE FREAK WINS AGAIN

Even though Dustin Pedroia looks like you and me, he is a freak. He doesn't look like a professional athlete. Everyone has always doubted DP, mostly because he is "...five foot nothing, a hundred and nothing..." but he has unbelievable hand-eye coordination and is the Rookie of the Year and now MOST VALUABLE PLAYER. I hope to use this same post often - good times...good times.

SELL HIGH

The_BGC: What's the Sox' No. 1 priority this winter?
Tony Massarotti: signing Teixeira!

If the Sox are going to go hard after Teixeira as Mazz continues to indicate as well as others, then they need to have trade scenarios in place. And they should involve Kevin Youkilis and not Mike Lowell.

Lowell’s contract, age, and injury diminishes his trade value. Youk is coming off his best season. He demonstrated a more aggressive approach at the plate that resulted in better power numbers. Youk drove those early fastballs instead of letting them go as he did in the past. Now, no GM would be hesitant about adding Youk to their team. He is a versatile gold glover, a complete hitter and under team control at below market salaries for the next two seasons. But those years will be at the age of 30 and 31. It is unlikely that Youk’s production will fall off a cliff in the next two seasons, but it is likely to get any better too. As Branch Rickey coined "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late."

A number of clubs - Twins, Giants, Phillies, Indians - clearly need a third baseman and others are likely to get into the bidding once it is known that Youk is available. With a thin free agent market, the Sox could get a similar to return to what the Rangers received for Teixeira and Ron Mahay. The Rangers got the Braves top three prospects and top 100 overall in Salty, Matt Harrison and Elvis Andrus plus now 100 mph man - Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones. If the Sox could only get a top catching and pitching prospect, then signing Teixeira makes sense.

REASONABLE MEASURED INSURANCE

The Sox do need insurance against age and health related production declines from Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. The Olde Towne Team just does not need a policy with a $140+ million premium.

The combination of Julio Lugo and a southpaw first baseman should be adequate in case Lowell has issues. Jed Lowrie can move to the hot corner versus lefty starters with Lugo at short to exploit each ones platoon split of late. Against most starters the Sox could bring back Sean Casey, go with a slugging no glove easy bad humor target Jason Giambi, or with one of the two former versatile/four corner Socks Eric Hinske and Doug Mientkiewicz.

A much simpler backup plan can be in place for Ortiz. Rocco Baldelli and Chris Carter can handle the DH duties if Ortiz has a prolonged DH stint. Carter can’t field, but with the stick he has been plenty good for three straight years in AAA. The AAA DH deserves a shot in the Show.

As for resolving the final issue, who will pair with Wake to round out the rotation, my thoughts are more conventional. Kenshin Kawakami appears to be a good first free agent choice.

“Kawakami isn’t overpowering; his fastball tops out in the low 90’s. His control is good…featured pitch is a cut fastball.”

Kawakami’s scouting report sounds like he would be a fine number four starter for the Sox. If the Olde Towne Team can’t bring in the Japanese import, Paul Byrd works too with Clay Buchholz or Mike Bowden as backups. Bowden appears to be a solid starter and Buchholz still has #1 starter upside.

For the second winter in a row, the Sox do not need a major overhaul. They need to add depth, explore all opportunities and seize upon the ones that are prudent, which means Mark Teixeira is unlikely to be a Sock like Johan Santana last year. It is probably better this way, but it does make for a tease type of blue winter.

THINGS ARE GOOD



I felt a similar experience as Stewart after the Sox won the World Series in 2004 (yes, I am comparing a change in entertainment to the most powerful institution in the world). I realized when you smile at people - they smile back, people are generally good, the sun felt warmer, food taste better…these are good times.