Will the only Bill to pass DC these days hit Boston?

Every day, the predicted track of Hurricane Bill seems to be further to the west than before. Much further and it'll be right over RI, the Cape, and Boston. We're already in the 10-20% likelihood that we get tropical storm winds when it passes by and that percentage has gone up in recent days. With the storm strengthening still (cat4 now, maybe cat5 before all is said and done), does that give it the strength to push further west before finally turning north and east...or does it just spin faster, like a top, and thus get influenced more by the easterly winds of the incoming cold front shoving further east faster?

Interesting fact: The name Bill was put into the Atlantic Hurricane pool because Bob was taken out in 1991-1992 after Hurricane Bob was the last to slam into New England.

Useful links:
* National Hurricane Center (NHC) 5 day prediction path
* Tropical Storm Wind predictions

reply

Anyone want to change your votes? :)

By Kaz - 8/19/09 - 4:54 pm

#8

Hot off the presses from the 5 PM NHC forecast discussion bulletin:

SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...BILL WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.

Emphasis mine.

Heads up, y'all.