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Bennett's analysis of 2013 Mayor's race so far
By Douglas Bennett on Sun, 04/07/2013 - 1:55pm
1. I can not believe neither Pressley and Arroyo Jr have entered the contest as of yet. If either candidate enters or if they both do, I believe that both could make the finals finishing 1st and 2nd. For instance if both Pressley and Arroyo Jr entered the Mayor's race and they both made it to the Finals, (They finished 1st and 2nd respectively in the 2011 At-Large race with both beating Connolly who finished 3rd), Whoever lost would be the number 1 contender and favorite for the 7th Congressional District if Capuano runs for Governor as expected in 2014.
2. I felt that Tito Jackson missed out on a major opportunity to grab the pole position in this race by not running. If Tito ran, he could have won.
3. There will be a huge vote that comes out in the South Western side of the city with intense campaigning by Connolly, Consalvo, and Conley. These three could split up their base bigtime allowing none of them to even make the finals.
4. Walczak is a big problem for Walsh. Each live in Ward 13 Precinct 10. I don't know why Walczak left Carney Hospital last year only 14 months in the helm. Neither he nor Carney has gone public about the reasons for Walczak's short stay. This is a big problem for Walczak because voters may have some pause thinking how can he run a city if he had problems running a hospital. Walczak made need to get ahead of this story before political detractors begin a whisper campaign against him to slight him. On the other hand, Walsh will have to get over the stigma that is now attached to him for making a quarter of a million dollars a year as both a State Legislator and Secretary General of the Builders and Trades Union. $250,000/year definitely puts a person in the top 1%. Walsh will need to make sure that his rivals don't paint him as this and that he represents who he says he actually does, the regular union worker.
5. I do not believe that Walsh will have a monopoly on labor. If Arroyo Jr enters, he will straw labor support from Walsh with the SEIU and the Teachers Unions among others.
6. Do not count out Charles Clemons. Charles is the founder of Touch 106.1FM. He is 50 years old, has a beautiful wife who will be out campaigning with him, AND he has bigtime support within the Dorchester, Roxbury, and Mattapan Community. If no major candidate of color emerges, Clemons could end up in the finals with some hard grassroots campaigning.
7. I understand that Will Dorcena is being discounted because he finished with 8000 votes in the 2011 Boston City Council At-Large Race. He's trying to pull off a "Kevin McCrae" by losing the At-Large race and then jumping into the mayor's contest. However with Consalvo leaving his District City Council Seat, Dorcena should really consider running for that open seat. He lives in Consalvo's district in Ward 18 Precinct 12 and if he worked hard he can win.
8. John Connolly looked good On The Record with Janet Wu this morning. John is intelligent and knows his issues. Whoever wins will be the one who understands the issues best and is able to most clearly explain their vision to the populace in simplist terms.
9. One last observation is that many talking heads in the media have suggested the possibility that John Fish should run for Mayor. If this was possible, he would make a strong candidate. However he lives in Milton. How do I know this? Well I visited him yesterday morning to introduce myself.
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Comments
Your analysis
Clemons will be lucky to collect the 3,000 signatures to get on the ballot in less than a month. Tito Jackson did not run as his house is in foreclosure. He didn't have a chance citywide anyhow, as he was just elected to the City Council. If neither Arroyo or Pressley run, Will Dorcena will emerge as the true candidate for change in Boston politics as he is for a two term limit for Mayor.
Look Wayne J. Wilson Jr, don't be a coward & post anonymously
Wayne. I know you just posted this reponse because it is the same exact response you replied with on my tweet.
Will Dorcena is a great guy. I've heard him speak. He's passionate and he is ignored by the main stream media. However, he got 8000 votes for At-Large City Council and this was in an election where people could vote for four candidates.
There's no need to trash Tito Jackson like that. And if you want to say Tito would not have had a chance, pull your head out of your bu_t. Tito got 30,000 votes for At-Large City Council and almost won city wide in 2009. That's 22,000 more votes than Will Dorcena got in 2011. And in Dorcena's run, there were less candidates (only 7 candidates???).
I like Will a lot, but he announced he was running for Mayor more than a year ago AND I still have NEVER seen him out door knocking and going house to house creating a true grassroots presence. Will has $22 in his OCPF account. If he has no money, than he has to counter this with hardcore grassroots organization and I haven't seen it.
It's one thing to say you're running for Mayor and it's another thing to actually run for Mayor.
My suggestion Mr. Wilson is to NOT throw rocks from a glass house and don't criticize your opponents because it shows self doubt.
Lastly, Dorcena is crazy to NOT consider running for Consalvo's open seat, win that, build a constituency with those he represents like his sister has in her Rep district, and then run for Mayor in the next cycle. The District Seat is definitely winnable and Will Dorcena can win it.
One final note, Charles Clemons will have no problem getting the 3K sigs.
Doug, you're spot on about
Doug, you're spot on about Will D. What has he been doing for a YEAR besides bitching about the lack of coverage? No money and no hustle.
His sister Linda is a wholly different story because a) she's a sitting legislator w/ a long list of bills to her name; b) she's got a serious bank account- upwards of 60k BEFORE running for Senate; and c) she's been a part of every winning Democratic team in this city since she started her career. She's worked her tail off and it will show on April 30 in this special election.
That said, Will D is still an also-ran in district 5 because Kelly Bates and Brian Clinton will clean his clock. This "run" for mayor has further diminished his already shaky reputation.
btw, Doug, you should have run at-large last time, not d3.
Dorcena could compete in the D5 race if he worked very hard.
I don't think you can discount Dorcena in the smaller District 5 race. Clinton is strong because he has some name recognition from running for the late Kelly Timilty's Governor's Council seat and that he is Consalvo's right hand man in City Hall. Bates seems like she would be a good candidate, but until a quick blurb mentioning her in a recent Dave Bernstein column, I've never heard of her.
Dorcena's problem is that I don't know if he knows how to ask people for money. If you have no money, you can't complain that you're being shut out of the process. Instead you have to take the initiative, get those names who previously donated to candidates in the past, look up their contact information and beg people for their money. If you don't ask, you don't get.
For instance, his sister had 65K before she even entered the special election for State Senate. If I was Will no matter how bad my relationship was with her, I would be calling all of his sister's donors, let them know who he was and then tell them that if they invest in him, they would have a strong supporter behind them just like his sister is for them. I guarentee he could raise 30K that way.
This is my 2 cents