If Ayanna Pressley runs for Mayor as reports are now suggesting that she may, she will undoubtably be the next Mayor.
It's a no brainer. Number one, the race is wide open for a major female candidate to run and win. There are ten men who running. Many people do vote based on gender. For instance, in the race to replace Jack Hart in the State Senate, many pundits believe that some of Nick Collin's votes will be siphered away by fellow Southie native Maureen Dahill which will allow Linda Dorcena Fory to be able to walk into office. However, I believe with two women running against Collins, the only male in the Democratic primary, many women will split their vote, while many men will vote for Collins. I'm not saying it is right, but it is a reality that gender politics is a determining factor for how many people vote in elections.
The same factor would be in effect with the Mayoral Race if Pressley enters. Pressley would win the preliminary election in a landslide. Let me repeat that... landslide. Pressley would be the only female in the race and I guarentee she could end up with a big plurality victory and huge momentum going into the Finals. In fact, because it would be her and 10 other males running. I would not be suprised if she won the September 24th Prelminary Election by 20 percent.
Additionally, I believe that Reverend Eugene Rivers is wrong saying that Boston's candidates of color are not ready to stage a successful mayoral race. How many people said this about Barack Obama before he ran for President? Pressley topped the ticket with 37,532 votes. That's 2000 more than Arroyo and 5000 more than Connolly. Plus, what if Reverend Rivers said this to Mel King in 1983? This type of insinuations by our local leaders only serves to discourage others and makes me believe that there is some sort of poitical calculation behind such statements as if Reverend Rivers is instead supporting someone else and is afraid that someone like Pressley could upset his plans.
Any concern about Pressley entering having an effect on Arroyo's base is not accurate. I believe that they each have strong bases, but from different sections of the populace. I believe that both candidates will be finalists if they enter and as I mentioned in a previous post, if Pressley wins and Arroyo does not then he will clearly be the favorite for the 7th Congressional Seat whether Michael Capuano runs for Governor or not.
To me, this is a no brainer. If Pressley runs, she wins.