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Still just one confirmed case, but a couple hundred people being monitored for Covid-19 in Mass.

WHDH reports state public-health officials are monitoring 231 people in the state for possible infection, after clearing 377 other people they'd been watching. Meanwhile, at least 4,000 people have contracted the flu in Boston alone, according to the Boston Public Health Commission, but nobody's predicting economic collapse because of that.

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Comments

The virus is afraid for its life now that renowned medical expert Mike Pence is on the case! We are talking about the genius who tried to defeat an HIV outbreak through prayer! Republicans don't need science when they can talk to mythical sky fairies. That's just common sense.

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Appointing Dr. Pence to the case will give Trump an excuse to ditch him if, as he's claimed, COVID-19 isn't under control in the US.

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...Nikki Haley finds herself cheering for a virus.

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Isn't he the error apparent? Or is that not allowed per some law which the GOP would just ignore anyways?

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someone to hold the virus down while he shoots it and then cuts its tail off.

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The real threat is the fear mongering going on. Global markets are taking a big hit and yeah that's a bigger threat to every otherwise healthy person who is panicking over a virus that has killed significantly less people than the flu.

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The markets are tanking because when people are sick they don't travel, don't buy consumer goods, and don't go to work.

It's not fear mongering, it's basic economics. Even if the fatality rate is tiny, there are real consequences from a pandemic where many are sick.

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Shutdowns of most of China's manufacturing capacity for several weeks is tanking the markets, as the slowdown makes its way through global supply chains.

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Maybe the two illnesses are being approached differently because they’re ... different?

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but the case fatality rate of covid 19 seems to be settling down to about 1%, which is an order of magnitude or more higher than for seasonal flu. For comparison, the 1918 Spanish Flu had a CFR of about 2–3%, according to Wikipedia.

So it is, as they say, nothing to sneeze at.

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The Federal government is going to commit billions to combat the virus, not unreasonably since this research can be applied to other virus outbreaks. Meanwhile, a recent article noted that pedestrian traffic fatalities just reached a 30 year high with some 6,500 killed last year.

It sure would be nice if the Government didn't take into account how someone was killed when determining spending priorities. A death is still a death regardless of it's from corvid-19, a mass shooting, or a drunk driver.

But let's just keep building that wall and playing games at the airport.

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This thing kills at least 20 times as many people as the flu and is equally infectious without any vaccine.

They are not taking it seriously enough. These constant comparisons with the flu are not helpful because it just hasn't infected that many people yet.

Of course, we have no idea because the CDC has decided in its wisdom that only people who have been to China need to be tested despite the fact that there are now more exported cases from Italy and Iran than China.

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The testing thing is really bothering me. You want to know when it's started circulating your community - I guarantee it's in many US communities already. Not knowing especially puts healthcare workers and other patients at risk since they won't be taking proper precautions - this virus is very contagious and deadly. Once it is established in the hospitals it will be bad, see Wuhan. I can't believe we've dropped the ball so badly with testing, it's really not difficult. Meanwhile South Korea is testing thousands per day.

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I feel like lack of testing was one of the big reasons the Diamond Princess quarantine failed.

The Japanese government was only testing people who presented as sick instead of everyone in the ship, so they didn't know who, amongst the crew, especially, was carrying/spreading the virus but had early or mild symptoms. So new infections continued to occur, rendering the 14 day quarantine meaningless.

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There was drastic reductions, year after year leading up to 2009ish when smartphones really start to take off in the public.

And every year since, a drastic rise in the number of pedestrians deaths. Which has been met with countless articles about "pedtextrians" and distracted walking to absolve the motoring enthusiast community from taking the actual blame.

The high rate of pedestrian deaths comes as deaths from other types of traffic fatalities are dropping. The group notes that improvements in vehicle safety make crashes safer for people inside cars — but just as deadly for pedestrians.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/28/589453431/pedestrian-...

I recall seeing that the spike in deaths crosses all age demographics, this isn't something limited to just young people. I gotta find the numbers to cite this claim.

And I believe that car crashes are the leading cause of death for children, outside of infectious diseases. Awesome.

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Bio threats can grow exponentially which makes them far more concerning.

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the flu/coronavirus comparison is a little rote. its mortality rate is about 2%, per the CDC, compared to influenza’s ~.13%, or nearly 18 times as deadly, per the same.

im not a scientist, but i would imagine that the flu vaccine has something to do with that; but that’s exactly the point — there’s currently no coronavirus vaccine.

i’m not arguing that these things aren’t sensationalized, but there isn’t really a comparison at this point. we aren’t sure how this is going to play out and uncertainty is one of the biggest factors that affects any economy.

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The mortality rate is much lower for younger, healthy people (like 0.2%). It's senior citizens who are getting thinned out.

More scary is that coronavirus sounds like it's more contagious than the flu. The anecdotes in the news talk about each infected person getting many other people infected. I don't know if flu spreads that fast.

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The doctor in China wasn't a senior citizen.

There are a lot of unknowns. And the danger of reinfection is one of them.

This could have severe effects on healthcare workers.

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It's senior citizens who are getting thinned out.

My god but you are one damaged, toxic piece of work.

Your numbers are the purest bullshit, too.

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This whole thread is full of derangement.

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I call bullshit on your mouthful of bullshit.

Search google for coronavirus mortality rate and the first or second result points here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

'Thinned out' is an accurate description. The 15% mortality for octogenarians reaches scale only seen when thinning animal herds.

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I want to understand the premise behind a certain class of politicians which supports the public health decisions pushed by people such Mitch McConnell. I've come to one conclusion:

They want the least economically productive citizens to die off earlier than need be. Otherwise the people who draw rely the most upon public funds will also be a large if not unbeatable constituency that opposes reductions in Social Security and Medicare.

Babyboom are in or are entering retirement. There is not enough money generated to maintain these populations even at reduced incomes.

The solutions are to reduce benefits (third rail) or let the beneficiaries die off based upon the deficient supports.

How horrible one might think that anybody would think in those terms. After Mitch McConnell and Mike Pence, and their Christian supporters proclaim all life is sacred.

The reality is that they are concerned about power. Power flows from wealth. The only way to secure public benefits is to further tax those with wealth. Not going to happen with those with wealth control the law.

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... there won't be enough ice floes on which to dump elderlies who no longer need to live (Randian-economically speaking).

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There is not enough money generated to maintain these populations even at reduced incomes.

It's a lie. The tax funding SS is capped at 138K income. Eliminate that cap, and taxing the 1% will fund it for at least 75 years.

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except the elderly by and large are the idiots sitting at home drinking deep on that fox news propaganda. if anything, mitch should be looking to encourage a disease that strikes down millenials and zoomers, of whom like a full quarter identify out and out as socialists.

presuming, of course, they need to worry about voting.... which at this point maybe they don't.

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For comparison, what is the mortality rate for the flu in these age groups?

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From what I've read on the internet (so it must be true!!), people think that China is under-reporting the numbers of infected individuals. In which case, we don't really know the mortality rate so it may be similar to the regular flu.

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Everybody is underreporting the numbers of infected individuals because it is possible to be infected for a significant amount of time without showing any symptoms. So basically all the mortality rates are too high because the denominator is too small.

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Make sure not to confuse mortality rate with case fatality rate. Mortality rate is percent of the general population dying per time period; case fatality rate is the percent of people who die after becoming infected, and is only counted for people who have either died or completely recovered. Presumably, the case fatality rate is much more heavily influenced by the unvaccinated population—which is a substantial number of people for the flu, and everyone for SARS-CoV-2.

The two stats work pretty differently, but I think in general we can say that it's an even *worse* comparison given the large portion of the population that is vaccinated.

(...having just learned about this from Wikipedia the other day, not as an expert or anything. To be clear. :-P)

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The two number being used are the case mortality rate (only deaths in identified cases - i.e., those sick enough to go for medical care) and the infected mortality rate is the rate for those who have caught the virus (can only be determined by widespread testing, to find those who are infected and either asymptomatic or have low-level symptoms). No one is reporting a mortality rate that applies to the entired population.

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We don't have a mortality rate yet.

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You are right, the flu costs our economy a fortune every year. It kills people every year. Even with education and shots and knowledge it still hangs over our heads for months on end.

This virus has the same potential if it is not contained and it spreads faster. It also may have a different breeding cycle. We could double our flu season moving forward. We could have overlaps between the two so people are miserable for months on end.

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For information from reliable, non-sensationalist sources I recommend the following

Epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch (who worked on the SARS outbreak)
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)
https://twitter.com/CIDRAP

And the COVID19 twitter stream does a good job vetting what they choose to post
https://twitter.com/V2019N

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Adam, I love your snarkiness, but why are we comparing this to the flu? We know the flu, we are accustomed to it's effects and patterns, we have plans in place to address it, we get vaccinated, hospitals have a good idea of what to expect. NONE OF THAT IS TRUE FOR COVID19!

Also- let's say 40 people of the 4000 in MA dies from the flu. It's sad, but we expect the flu to kill people so we don't really freak out. Now we have a "new flu" that may also kill 40 people in MA this season (maybe more). So the number for "flu" deaths may double. Should we not be concerned? Should we not try to prevent that? Even if it means shutting down the city for a bit?

I do think we should remain calm and be realistic, but I just don't get the "what about the flu" stuff.

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Here's a chart describing the death rate, by age, among people testing positive for COVID-19.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavi...

IMAGE(https://scontent.fzty2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/87458585_3697582986948815_1741827371327029248_n.png?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_oc=AQn2iflSMq6N5UOxO-0YriKyCeioStAh49mHuLCWBGNLbb1bC8rOjbG9PAzerKlrlV8&_nc_ht=scontent.fzty2-1.fna&oh=a88e6ecca059cae77b92d1c8d901654b&oe=5EB56A4E)

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...numbers that are sketchy at best.

GIGO. No one with even half a brain would take these percentages seriously.

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This is real science, based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11. If you have more detailed or updated information, please share it with the world.

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The boomers on this site will be coming after you with pitchforks for your agist posting.

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href="https://twitter.com/ColumbiaMSPH/status/1233122155568812032?s=20">

Mass Dept of Public Health has good resources and news. The Mailman School of Columbia is known for global epidemiology research.

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