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Took down the Coronavirus French Toast Alert banner

Unfortunately, yes, we're still at Red / 5 Slices / Severe, but we all know that by now and in the meantime, that glowing red banner was giving me a headache every time I call up the home page, which is all the time now, it seems, so for now I'll keep it off the home page until that day the warning can be lowered to more reasonable levels.

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Comments

It was sad.

Can you bring it back once we drop a level?

up
19

Here are my predictions. Thoughts?

The next month:

New York will hit 300 deaths per day in 1 week and stay around that level for the next 2 weeks. The rest of the states will catch up one at a time and the nation wide peak death rate per day will be stretched out as individual states enter and exit the peak. Expect the peak rate to continue over about 4 weeks. I expect the peak death rate to be between 250 - 400 per day for about 3-4 weeks. That will give us between 20 and 50 K deaths for that period.

Everything will be closed.

Parts of the country will be in lockdown with the national guard enforcing the lockdown.

Stock market will continue to fall, expect another 30- 40 percent fall from current levels.

Hospitals will be overburdened.
large numbers of healthcare workers will get sick, some will die.

The world in two months:

Schools will continue to be shut

No gathering of any sort - no festivals, live music, fans in sports stadiums.

Restaurants or bars will remain shut.
Takeout places will be open.
More non-essential shops will be open.

Live sport will be back but without any audience, and will be for TV viewing only.

Happy hour via zoom.

No international travel.

Food prices will rise as farm labor will not be allowed into the country.

International shipping will start coming back..

Chinese manufacturing and supply chain will be back online.

American cases will be trending down

Everyone will be wearing face masks and carrying hand sanitizers in public.

Construction will start coming back online.

Car sales will essentially be non-existent.

Stock market will continue on a slow downward trend.

The world in 4 months:

Things will have cooled down but clusters will continue to rise.

Governments will focus on early detection of clusters and will intrusively monitor the population.

Routine blood testing done in primary care clinics will be pooled and sampled by the dept of public health and tested for the presence of the virus. This way the health authorities can detect flare-ups as and when they arise.

International travel will resume on a selective basis. Visas will be required by every country.

There will be extensive testing before you can fly into another country. People who had previously been infected and have recovered may be allowed to travel. You may need to have a copy of your IgG titers, proving you are immune, to be able to travel internationally.

Bars and restaurants will be open.

Stadiums will not be open, no gathering of more than a 100 people will be allowed.

No festivals of any sort.

Construction will restart.

Real estate sales will be depressed.

Car sales will continue to be low.

Stock market will be at its bottom.
(Perhaps time to pick tech stocks such as msft.)

Hotels will reopen

Britain will have no deal with the EU

The world in 6-10 months:

Retirement portfolios will be half of what they were in early 2020

Spending will be down, the economy will continue to contract.

Prices of imported items will rise as international trade will not be back to normal

Vacation homes will be selling cheap, especially in Florida.

Economy will be in depression

Airline stocks will be very cheap

Residential real estate will be cheap and will continue to fall.

Biden will be president.

You had me following right along until you said

The world in 6-10 months:

  • Economy will be in depression
  • Airline stocks will be very cheap
  • Residential real estate will be cheap and will continue to fall.
  • Biden will be president.

Then I knew something was wrong with your model that you used for the prognostications

Let's begin by comparing what you have prognosticated with what is being stated by a Nobel Prize Winner who has been studying the data
https://www.newsmax.com/us/virus-covid-19-michael-levitt/2020/03/23/id/9...

Nobel Laureate on Coronavirus: 'We're Going to Be Fine'
By Theodore Bunker | Monday, 23 March 2020 01:13 PM

The United States will get through the worst of the coronavirus outbreak sooner than many experts anticipate, Michael Levitt, a biophysicist at Stanford University and a Nobel laureate, told the Los Angeles Times on Monday.

According to Levitt, who was awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his work on complex models of chemical systems, the COVID-19 virus' spread in China has peaked, as seen by reports that the country has seen far fewer newly diagnosed patients since March 16, and the U.S. will see the virus' spread drop as more people embrace social distancing practices.

"What we need is to control the panic," he told the LA Times, adding that overall, "we're going to be fine," and noting that the data doesn't indicate months or years of social disruption or millions of deaths from the coronavirus.

Levitt said he examined 78 countries that each have reported 50 or more cases of the coronavirus every day, and that he found "signs of recovery" by focusing on the number of new cases identified per day.

"Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth," he said, admitting that the figures are not exact. He added that despite the incomplete information, "a consistent decline means there's some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers."

Levitt said that social distancing measures will help slow the spread of the virus enough to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed, and said that the media caused unnecessary panic with constant updates on the total number of cases and the various celebrities who have tested positive for COVID-19.

He added that despite the virus having a higher fatality rate than the flu, it's "not the end of the world ... the real situation is not nearly as terrible as they make it out to be."

Now I'm not a Nobel Laureate -- although I often play one on the Internet
But I also see the same kind of global behavior -- all based on four fundamentals:

  1. When did it start in the particular location
  2. How long a delay was there until social-distancing began in the particular location
  3. How old is the population
  4. Exacerbating / Mitigating Factors such as % Smoking, % Obesity

Essentially Each of the individual locations:

  1. Begins with exponential growth in number of cases [aka tests positive] which subsides to a linear growth in cases and ultimately approaches 0 new cases -- hence the total number of cases from day 0 approaches a constant plateau.
  2. Meanwhile with some few weeks of phase lag -- the number of recovered cases follows the same curve -- essentially approaching the total cases curve
  3. Also with some delay of a few weeks the number of deaths follows the total cases curve -- except for the scaling factor which is based on Population Age, and the Exacerbating / Mitigating Factors such as % Smoking, % Obesity

As of Today [03/25/20 or most recent data]:
World [WHO]*1 Total Cases: 413467 Deaths: 18433 New Cases 40712 New Deaths 2202
US [CDC]*2 Total Cases: 68,440 Total deaths: 994
MA [MA ]*3 Tested 19,794 Cases:1838 Deaths 15 New Cases 679 New Deaths 4

Bottom Line -- Final outcome in 6 to 10 months:

  1. Some small percentage of the population <<1%? tests positive [perhaps a few times that number doesn't test but had the subclinical disease] -- so about 1% may have antibodies to the COV-SARS2 virus
  2. >97% of those who test positive recover with no lasting effects -- about 99++% of those who are never tested recover
  3. about 1 to 2% of those who test positive die of the COVID-19 or it and some other diseases

So -- it will be getting worse for some few weeks and then it will begin to subside except for the occasional imported case [look at Wuhan in China, China*1 as a whole or Korea*1 as examples]. By the end of the Summer it will be gone and we can start putting our new lives together -- as something will probably have changed such as the use of remote access for telemedicine, teleconferencing, etc.

China:
Total Cases 81848 New Cases 101 Deaths 3287 New Deaths 4
Korea:
Total Cases 9137 New Cases 100 Deaths 126 New Deaths 6

Refs:

*1 Global WHO
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2...
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Situation Report – 65
Data as reported by national authorities by 10:00 CET 25 March 2020
Total Tested + 413467 New + 40712 Deaths 18433 New Deaths 2202

*2 US CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
Total cases: 68,440
Total deaths: 994
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

*3 MA
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-march-25-...
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases in MA
As of March 25, 2020
Confirmed Cases Reported = 1838
There are 679 new cases
4 new deaths were reported for a total of 15 total deaths statewide.
More than 6000 additional individuals tested for a total 19,794
Deaths Attributed to COVID-19 15
Hospitalization
Patient was hospitalized 103
Patient was not hospitalized 350
Under Investigation 1385

I’m tired of seeing people’s predictions.

Sounds good; it wasn't providing any new information.

I think we all know this crisis is a marathon not a sprint. If we're lucky it's a 5k.

If we're really unlucky it's Rollerball.

Thanks as always for all you do.

Maybe this move will make bread and eggs easier to find in the store!!!

It wasn't so much of a French Toast alert considering the item in the most demand is primarily TP...

I'm just so glad you are out there and giving news that is relevant and thoughtful (and sometimes fun). I appreciate all you are doing these days.

1 more week and I can go all over town not worried about the plague!

They got to Adam...