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Oh, noes: We're in the cone of probability for the first named storm of the season

Arthur cone

UPDATE: Tropical Depression 1 is now Tropical Storm Arthur.

The National Hurricane Center is eying a tropical depression off Florida that could intensify enough to get itself named Arthur and churn up the Atlantic seaboard (as tropical storms are wont to do) and smack into us just in time for the weekend.

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... for booking a yurt on the harbor islands. It was February! Who knew!

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Back in February, I'd have been more concerned that the harbor would still be frozen beyond boating than that a summer storm was an actual possibility.

Good luck! I'll be in the great Midwest so I'll miss Arthur like I missed Irene.

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You don't really have a choice if you want to camp in one of those yurts. At this point they're sold out for the entire season.

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Even in a hurricane. Maybe especially in a hurricane.

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Even if the sky is clear, Webb Park to the campsite via Hull Gut will be treacherous.

But, hopefully, the ferry will run and then it will just be a fun thing from there on.

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I heard Great Brewster does -- but I didn'tthink any ferries went to this (there was a ferry one summer several years ago that went from Georges to Great Brewster -- but it seemed to be just for that one year).

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I never made it out there and would probably pick off-season.

That sounds great though.

I used to live on an island called Vashon.

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You lived on Vashon? You left, why?

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.to move back to West Seattle.

My friend and I had a new 2 br with washer dryer in apt for 675 a month April 2000 to April 2001.

I was helping with a home makeover there.

And their bus system would zip you to Fauntleroy and then Downtown if needed.

Seattle is so wonderfully earnest about trying to do stuff well.

Your masshole dismay is much more understandable to someone who knows both cultures.

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The operative word being "were"......

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I walked by it on my way to work on Jake's farmhouse.

http://goo.gl/maps/zBy9D

Looks like he's added some other buildings.

There was also a petty oligarch named Stewart who was the local cardboard villain and host of some GOP picnic.

He eventually moved to Arizona where he crashed his plane.

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Swirls , you know that Webb Park was a Nike missile silo , and across the way , was the ammo dump. Be careful around there , we need you !

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My MIL lives out at Weymouthport, so I'm acquainted with the former land use in the area.

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Also, Swirls , be careful of the Commuter Boat from the Hingham oo la la boat yard / shopping complex, formerly a ship building dynamo owned by Bethlehem Steel, during the Big One ! Maybe there is still a section undeveloped where the launching ramps can be seen . That area was heavily military industrial complexed up.

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My GF (now wife) and I knew we'd do pretty well together when, during a kayak trip, we spent 24+ hours in a tent during a big storm on a remote beach on Vancouver I. That's a true test of compatibility. Either you kill each other or get married.

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Swirls , next time use the Negotiator , he can get you better than a yurt. whatever that is.

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I want to see Shatner negotiate with Mother Nature on the weather!

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Camping on one of the Harbor Islands is totally on my bucket list. It just seems so cool... and I had no idea I could DO IT IN A YURT!

I love Boston.

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Glad I can turn somewhere to get this news. At the time of this comment on the front page of bostonglobe.com, the only powerful storm that's reportedly bearing down on New England is Mario Batali.

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Seconding that. But if you want up to the minute coverage, go here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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.

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The internet today!

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I'm sorry. I've spun this around in my head many times, and...I don't get it. Can you explain for the uninitiated?

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Market Basket supermarket disagreements between 2 brothers (one of whom
was recently ousted from its board of directors).

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Cousins, actually.

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Thanks - you're right.

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n/t

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Perhaps I can surf from my yurt!

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Love all these comments! Swirly - that sounds like the title for a Dr. Seuss book! Write on....

Is there something similar to the French Toast Alert for tropical storms? Or do we all run to the store for the same items thattgj8g we do for a blizzard?

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I think it's too hot for French toast, so I plan to stock up on smoothie ingredients.

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I thought we did margaritas last time there was a serious hurricane warning?

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Nah, in hurricane season you run to the package store.

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Fourth of July = Boston Pops = Arthur Fiedler = Hurricane Arthur.

Coincidence? I think not.

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Will they have to take down the Arthur balloon due to Arthur?

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Dave Epstein's Weather Wisdom Blog would have a decent, well explained, discussion of the impending tropical depression, but I don't have the patience to track it down. Instead, we have an AP wire story from Miami.

Yes, I have this great website, but for weather discussion, I need a direction.

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bookmarked it.

And to Jeff F, no, BDC is in fact a crappy website now. It was passible before, since there was some kind of organization to it, but now, well, if the Herald did news updates better on their website, perhaps I'd be heading that way.

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I misinterpreted - when you said 'this website' I thought you were still talking about BDC - not UHub.

So yeah, sounds like we're both pretty skeptical of BDC.

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Oh, UHub is still the greatest, but Adam is no AMS trained meteorologist.

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There's a story about/from Miami, because the storm will have an effect on that major city. The question of just what it will mean for the Boston area is still unknowable, so a long in-depth story about it would be premature and irresponsible.

(...and completely out of chartacter for boston.com's frontpiece, where tabloid, bloggish and driven-by-twits is order of the day. Needless to say I disagree with your characterization of BDC as a"great" website. Passable for mobile use? Sure).

Btw, here's a link to David Epstein's Boston.com blog (which I agree is well written and worth bookmarking). And he says pretty much the same thing - we just don't know what course the storm will take at this point, and therefore a real forecast isn't possible yet, although we obviously need to keep an eye on it.

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Stupid question from elsewhere: Why are people saying "BDC" if they mean "boston.com"? And yes, I call it "execrable".

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Boston Dot Com

Derp, I get it, sorry...

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And I wrote it. I don't believe I got caught up in the use of the cutesy version of the website name, but it was quicker than boston.com.

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Boston Dot Crap now

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having friends fly in from the south and was so so excited all this time since weather has been hot and sunny. just my luck a hurricane will be here for the 4th. UGHHHHH

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Just growing possibility of a quite rainy Friday (followed by a very nice Sat/Sun). Spend a few minutes reading instead of freaking.

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When did WCVB become Chicken Little? No wonder most of their decent reporters have moved over to WBUR. Channel 5's headline now: "Storm to strengthen into hurricane; bring heavy rains for holiday", when most models I have seen are predicting a tropical storm or maybe a hurricane off the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Not here (rain here, but no hurricane). Meanwhile Weather Underground (which I find to be the most reliable) is forecasting rain for Friday, but only in the afternoon, and even that forecast is changing by the hour.

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Did the insufferable short guy put on his 'serious business' smart glasses yet?

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When I miss Al Kaprielian. Actually, that's most days. What a loveable crazy dude...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCaveVsJfVs

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you pick on Eddie Obvious. His vapidity is only outdone by his babbling last word on everything tick.

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This seems really early for a hurricane this far north.

I do remember one epically rainy, but warm, humid, and completely nasty July 4th in either 1979 or 1980. The picnic got moved inside, and we all crammed our clammy selves inside the teeny dining room to eat overcooked cheeseburgers and burned hot dogs.

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Doesn't hurricane season go in sort of two chunks, with a sort of quiet patch typical for July? I remember in previous years that June was moderately active...more later in the summer and into the fall, of course, but...

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No one (responsible) is predicting that Arthur is likely to be a hurricane when it passes by New England on Friday. Stranger things have happened, of course, but nearly all models just see Aurthur as getting up to tropical storm strength, and us here in Boston getting a drenching sometime Friday eve (and nice following weather for the rest of the weekend).

Btw, the average date for the first named storm of the season here on the east coast (base on data 1966-present) is July 9th. So this is pretty typical timing.

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Arthur is now predicted to pass to the east of Nantucket as a hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

It's pretty much too early to know for sure, but this seriously stinks for anyone with plans on the Cape this weekend.

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The current NOAA map (as of 5pm Tue) shows Arthur degrading from a hurricane (H) to a tropical storm (S) while still off the coast of Virginia.

And the probable path cone still indicates it's most likely to pass many hundreds of miles to the east of the Cape and Islands. If that happens, we'd likely just end up with a bout of intense rain (maybe enough for some flash flooding) - followed by some pretty nice air. Not a lot of wind, and moving through quite quickly.

Still plenty of time to freak later in the week if predictions shift.

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Tropical Storm Arthur looks like it's on a path to Boston, but it could get caught between the moon and New York City.

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This took me a minute to get. LOL

The best it can do... the best it can do.. is to fall in love.

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Is that "the best that you can do"?

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I know it's crazy, but it's true.

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:)

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">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc4tfdMUWIo[/youtube]

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Can we use the French Toast Alert scale for a tropical storm on the 4th of July?

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In honor of the cheesy sci-fi channel flick they had last year.

Here's my rendering

Pebble - Swirly is safe camping in a yurt in the hahbah. Most areas of city also safe, except for around the Hancock (or is that a continuous state)

Stone - Wailing and lament go up throughout the land when a beloved 300-year-old tree crashes on the Comm Ave Mall. Former Rep Marty Walz rejoices over the elimination of more shadows in downtown. Now about those swaying tall buildings...

Rock - Weathermen (including one from the Weather Channel with a measuring stick thinking it's going to snow) flock to Wallaston Beach with raincoats to get sprayed by waves and end up drowning in a pothole on Morrissey Boulevard after ignoring flashing "Wicked Deep Potholes" signs. Governor Patrick in an emergency services slicker in an undisclosed bunker makes appeals to shelter in place. Boston is a ghost town except for Sheriff Doug Bennet who wanders the streets in search of emergency personnel that he can help.

Boulder - Weathermen flock to Hull to show houses only 100 feet from waves crashing on a beach. Army Corps of Engineers making plans to reconstruct Beach with cool army stuff. Governor Patrick in an emergency services slicker in an undisclosed bunker makes appeals to hunker in place.

Stonado - so strong it actually picks up Plymouth Rock and hurls it into a basketball court in Cambridge. Charles River Gates breached, Back Bay and South End Flooded. Mayor Walsh circulates city in lost Charles River gondola urging residents (in operatic song) to remain calm and follow evacuation routes (posted on Beacon Hill right next to that gorilla sign for the zoo - only now Joe the Gorilla is really there because stonadoes destroyed his cage). Blamed on climate change and Al Gore flies to Boston donning an emissions free red cape to save the day.

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Glad he's coming back from Panama for Arthur. Too bad all that good work down there on behalf of the Commonwealth will just go south.

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Don't do it , Arturo !

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I buy a green friendly generator that will power the barn lights where I keep my milking cow and my electric bread baker.

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Looks like my weekend plans are set in stone!

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The ship will sail outside of "the cone." But Friday and Saturday should be a rockin' good time. Who knows, maybe the swimming pool and hot tubs on Deck 10 (?) will take on water!

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They'd spin a wheel and pick a random flavor for you.

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