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What happened?

Republican bloggers are, obviously, more in the mood to party than analyze tonight (in fact, Red Mass. Group is liveblogging from the Brown victory party), while Democratically inclined bloggers are more inclined to analyze how the bluest state in the nation just sent a conservative Republican to Washington:

Boston Maggie: How does it feel? It feels good.

Jay Fitzgerald, who predicted a Coakley win this morning, reports he is pleased to be wrong:

... The most stunning political state upset in my lifetime. ...

Mark Sullivan: We just cracked open the champagne.

Fenway Pastoral predicts Ayla Brown singing "God Bless America" will replace "Sweet Caroline" at Fenway this year.

John Della Volpe, who worked on Ted Kennedy's campaign against Mitt Romney, writes Coakley failed to learn the absolute most important lesson of that campaign: Don't take a vacation:

... Say what you want about the Coakley campaign – but if they studied for a second that 1994 Kennedy-Romney race, campaigned like they were down 100,000 votes (which she is as I write this and watch her concession), did not make a federal case out of debating their opponent one-on-one and shook hands early in the morning and late at night from day one – my gut tells me Martha Coakley would be our Senator.

While there are a lot of disappointed Democrats in Massachusetts and around the country tonight (for good reason IMHO) – we should remember, voters are smarter than we think. When they were begging for attention this winter –- Martha Coakley blew them off and took them for granted. Senator, yes United States Senator Scott Brown did not -- he read Senator Kennedy's book. He deserved this win.

Meredith Green: WTF, Martha Coakley?

... For the record, I voted for Coakley despite her lackings. I can only imagine that she thought herself to be such a sure thing and then panicked when Brown gained momentum. I am sad and a little outraged, but the people have clearly spoken, and they wanted Scott Brown, the Republican Senator from Massachusetts. (How weird does that sound?)

Foxed explains why Coakley's concession speech mirrored her campaign:

... There was no passion, and I think that's the real drive behind how Scott Brown won. Waiting on his victory speech now, but... Martha was cool and collected. Losing didn't even faze her. I'm not asking for tears, folks. Just... something. "You win some, you lose some" isn't the attitude to have when you've lost the biggest race of your life!

It's like... running for Senator was just a hobby for her. I'm seriously amazed by this!

The Outraged Liberal congratulates our first Republican senator in decades, cautions Washington will be a bit tougher for him:

The cold hard facts are that Democrats still control 59 percent of the United States Senate. That's a resounding majority anywhere else in the thinking world. If Brown chooses to be the 41st obstructionist, content to block action without offering constructive alternatives, congressional leaders still have substantial majorities with which to work.

Oh, and Coakley should announce immediately she won't run for re-election.

Michael Pahre sums up everything Coakley did wrong, from ignoring independents to insulting Red Sox fans - and predicts a Galvin run for AG.

Charley on the MTA talks to Alan Khazei on why progressives shouldn't be lining up at the Tobin Bridge:

... "We have to not read too much into this. It's a special election," What do we have to do to get out front of this wave? Khazei says emphatically, jobs. And the Dems have to get away from the special interests. ...

Jeff Egnaczyk blames Coakley:

... As much as I'm disappointed with the people of Massachusetts for buying into the Republican economic philosophy that's gotten us into this economic situation, I'm more pissed off at Martha Coakley. ...

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Comments

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I think we have to get John Kerry out of office. Here is this multi-million dollar guy with more houses then any of us. this guy does not relate to the average guy who is out of work or trying to make ends meet. i say we kick the bum out of office!

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With five houses? OK, two are condos, but still.

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He drives an old truck!

(Did he put 200K miles on it just driving between his five houses?)

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so being a landlord of a few small apartments puts you out of touch? The guy has one house in MA and a vacation home in NH. Not exacly living it up. His home in wrentham is nice, but not palatial by any means and 10 years ago his daily driver was a Suzuki Esteem. I only know this because I was taken aback that an attorney and state rep married to a newscaster had a pretty shitty car given the circumstances.

But its more fun to pick holes in who the guy is. One thing is for sure, he is no John Kerry.

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Of course the responsibility lies with her in the end. But any of these consultants will tell you, you don't use your 20 point advantage to broadcast your opponent's name all over the airwaves. Talk to any of these guys two weeks ago they would have said do what you're doing. If she had a fault it was to be too deferential to the Democratic national agenda... which of these consultants told her to run against Washington two weeks ago??? They were all blindsided because they lied to themselves about Deeds in VA and Corzine in NJ. Now they go on deluding themselves. Obama took the independents because he opposed war, not because these independents made a huge turn towards traditional Democratic programs.

Democrats: small-scale middle-class prosperity is what we need, not dramatic new programming from Washington. Republicans: nobody is asking you to start two more wars.

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As disappointed as I am in the result, the political junkie in me admires a candidate who was busting his butt even when his own national party had written him off.

Scott Brown may have been pushed over the top by a lot of national money and support, and perhaps some scare ads and messages misconstruing the health care debate, but he started eating into Coakley's huge lead with old fashioned retail politics. He also won over voters by being upbeat, friendly, and personable.

Martha Coakley ran like a candidate expecting to win without sweating it. She never defined her candidacy, and when she started losing her lead she could not recover the momentum. She never made a connection to the vast majority of voters, either by message or by dint of personality. Ultimately, people didn't like her.

It was a rare perfect storm for the Massachusetts GOP.

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stayed home, because they just didn't care enough. I don't really buy this idea of a sophisticated MA electorate sending some kind of coherent message to Washington. The same old assortment of bigots, crackpots, and rich people who voted for Bush twice came out to give Obama and the "liburals" the finger. It was a great day for those dark, frustrated characters who post the variety of anonymous comments that sometimes get removed from Boston.com and for that elite and perpetually aggrieved class of people whose most serious perceived hardship comes from the annual anguish of having to pay taxes. I hope that all the effusive butt-kissing of Brown and fabricated tales of some kind of radical, communal conversion go away after a respectful interlude of about 24 hours.

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Not exactly a scientific analysis, but I heard instances on NPR where Obama voters had voted for Brown because of Dem arrogance (their words, not mine). Just sayin'.

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The Republicans tell them what to think and they think it. How is that for Democratic arrogance? Democrats don't know how to work the masses like the Republicans do because they have too much respect for the "common man" to manipulate him and imagine--wrongly--that logical arguments will win over the voter. So MA is just another meathead state this morning and now I know for sure that the country deserves whatever it gets which is to say that it deserves and will receive a rapid deterioration of its prestige in the world and its living standards at home, at least for most people. The changes that can stop this from happening are dead in the cradle this morning.

Whit

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"How is that for Democratic arrogance? " Ya whit you're arrogant beyond compare. Go tune in to Oberman and get a dose of his vitriol to go with that spite. Oh he doesn't tell you Zombie's what to think right? Brown won because people in this state realize Frank, Pelosi and co are driving us into bankruptcy. The Dems seem to be listening now but apparently not all of them.

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Seriously. For every Olbermann you throw out, I'll raise you a Hannity, Beck and Limbaugh.

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That's the point I was making-congratulations. I believe the premise was we're told what to think. And that w/b different from libs how?

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That would be the Bush administration, which presided over the largest expansion of the federal government since FDR. Most of that expansion was on borrowed money.

Republicans like to talk smaller government, but they like to make bigger government.

Brown got elected because lots of people are suckers who fall for the same flim-flam every time.

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That's on the money, Sock_Puppet. I was going to make exactly that point by asking whether the country was bankrupted before or after President G.W. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress cut taxes and significantly increased spending (which were largely pro-cyclical actions, as the economy was mostly growing during those 8 years, and they started with federal budget surpluses).

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Ah conveniently you forget all about Bwaney and Dodd. Fannie and Freddy are just fine right? I'll tell you what that shrew from Cali better be listening better than you are if she cares about her political future lol.

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The same old assortment of bigots, crackpots, and rich people who voted for Bush twice

That same assortment of people helped elect President Obama in 2008 and lots of democrats in 2006. Were they the same assortment of bigot, crackpots, etc. then too? I guess in your book when people vote democratic they are sophisticated and enlighted, but vote for another party those people are "dark, frustrated characters" or worse. Perhaps you take a look at yourself before you call people bigots.

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"perpetually aggrieved class of people whose most serious perceived hardship comes from the annual anguish of having to pay taxes"

Anybody not aggrieved by paying taxes is always welcome to pay more. 47% of the state voted for Coakley. How many of them are so willing to pay more taxes that they check off the "charge me a higher rate" box on their state returns? Almost zero. I'm pretty sure you can also itemize donations to the Feds and get a deduction.

How many liberals out here with lots of great ideas about what the rest of us should do with our money voluntarily give extra to any level of government every year? Nobody's stopping you.

Here's one example - If unlimited healthcare for the 47 million without it is so important to you - simply start a charity, set up a staff to review the neediest cases and then buy a policy for whoever needs it with an allowance for their own contributions to the extent they can afford it. You don't need Washington to do this, especially if it's that important to you. You can even give it to them tax free as a "gift". And since about half the country votes Democratic, you and your cohorts can take care of half the problem without paying any more in taxes than you would if the Feds charged you for the program (actually I bet you could do it cheaper). And since you have nothing better to do with your money - feel free to pay mine and cover the other half of the uninsured!

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I want you to pay too, Stevil. That's why.

Whit

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...me and my 1,168,000 friends and neighbors just sent Scott Brown to Washington. My guess is come November a few million of my other out-of-state friends will express a similar opinion.

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"the bluest state in the nation just sent a conservative Republican to Washington"

Are you crazy? Only in Massachusetts is Scott Brown labeled a "conservative". He is a traditional moderate Republican who will be more at home with the Republican ladies from Maine and the Blue Dog Democrats than the Republicans from the deep south. It should be an interesting path he travels over the next two years: either he is a back bencher partyline vote or a maverick who crosses the aisle to create real reform.

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The guy's no Bill Weld or Paul Cellucci.

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I ran into Bill Weld in a restaurant in New York in December of 2008 and asked him, "Governor, if Senator Kennedy passes away before his current term ends, will you come back and run?"

He chuckled, and said, "Wow, I haven't been called Governor in a while. No, no, I've already done that." I cannot help but wonder whether he is regretting that decision this morning. I know that I am.

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This was never the "bluest" state in the union (a term I have put in quotes because, like so much else in the political discussion, is an oversimplification of the characterization it attempts to make).

Many people like myself, who are regularly and wrongly characterized as liberals, are given that label because of what we believe with respect to a small number of the so-called "cultural", "social" or "wedge" issues. My beliefs on those issues generally arise from a libertarian streak, not a liberal one. I am generally a fiscal conservative (although I routinely advocate for more money for what I believe are core govermental functions, e.g., construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructure, public safety and education), but not militantly so like the many Tea Party extremists (whom I believe are using the banner of fiscal conservatism to cover substantially more nefarious beliefs and objectives).

I think that many have missed a big reason why Ted Kennedy was routinely sent back to Washington. It was not because the electorate shared all of his beliefs. Many voted for him because it was in the state's interest because he had amassed a huge amount of power in the Senate and could steer lots of federal dollars to Massachusetts.

While not liking or disliking Senator-elect Brown to any significant degree yet, I am very concerned about how he, a very junior member of the minority, is going to fare on that score. It is interesting to note that even with Kennedy in office, Massachusetts still sent much more money to Washington than it got back (as of 2004, it got back $.77 for each $1 sent - and that was WITH the Big Dig). I am having a difficult time believing that ratio is about to improve, which leads me to what might be the ultimate irony of the election yesterday: Brown won on the backs of people who were either tea partiers or sympathize with at least some of their overt beliefs. The irony is that most of the people who subscribe to that movement hail from states that are net beneficiaries of Massachusetts's largesse. I will be watching my mail to see if the thank you note arrives.

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In a Mass Democratic Congress that has been rife with corruption for years, this was the electorate saying "enough". Coakley just reinforced all of the negative perception that Mass voters have of their Democratic leaders, aloof, out of touch and elitist. Scott Brown, for all of his myriad (and dangerous)flaws, worked his ass off. He used the playbooks of both Bush (regular guy) AND Obama (voter's frustration) to bring it home. Once Mass voters see how much of an empty suit he is, all the Dems have to do is field a strong enough candidate and in 2 years Brown is toast.

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I think Martha Coakley got caught with her pants on the ground, pants on the ground. She was lookin' like a fool with her pants on the ground.

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From a Thursday New York Times editorial:

The Democrats had an exceptionally weak candidate in Massachusetts, but the results call into question their tactical political competence. The party now has less than 10 months to get it right before the midterm elections, when they are in danger of losing more seats in the House and the Senate. It is indisputable that the Republicans have settled on a tactic of obstruction, disinformation and fear-mongering, but it is equally indisputable that the Democrats have not countered it well.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/opinion/21thur1....

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