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MBTA starts to think about fare increases

WBUR reports, adds the T has not gotten to the point of specific proposed increases, let alone public hearings on them.

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The most incredible joke ever. Fuck the Green Line

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No fare increases since 2007? It's time!

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With the elimination of the Combo pass, I got a fare decrease of $12/mo the last time they changed the pricing scheme.

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Next time a train's stuck in a tunnel for over 2 hours.

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Gotta start somewhere.

As I pointed out in my Patch column this week (warning, self-promotion):

Fare revenue covers just 27 percent of the T’s costs. Meanwhile, 22 percent of its budget is dedicated to debt service.

In a way, when you pay your $1.70 fare, $1.40 of it is going right out the door to pay interest on the T’s bonds, not toward the cost of your ride.

I think a gasoline tax hike should be on the table, too.

After that, I am plumb out of ideas. (plum?)

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What I don't understand is why we can't just get stimulus money to pay off the debt. Boom, 22% increase in funds.

I'm sure there are a million reasons why that won't happen, but I can dream.

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Money does grow on trees - right?

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Charlie Baker.

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It's a bad idea.

If the T costs more, fewer people will ride it, which results in even fewer fares. If the T reduces service, either in frequency, or by cutting stops and routes, fewer people will ride it, which results in even fewer fares. And fewer fares means less money coming in, and then more people make the mistake of asking for cuts, and things spiral downwards.

The better solution is to reduce fares and increase service (add bus routes, add rail lines, improve the reliability and speed of the system so that value is increased perceptibly). The T should primarily be paid for out of the general fund though. Increased state income and capital gains taxes (particularly at high brackets) would be a big help.

We can further funnel people to mass transit by -- once we've got some slack in the highway and road system -- setting up HOV/ETL lanes and congestion charges, as well as increasing gas taxes according to proximity to mass transit.

An even longer term tactic might involve banning greenfield construction statewide (barring a waivers granted via a lengthy study process) as well as slowly adjusting the tax code, zoning laws, road construction and deconstruction, etc. to reduce the value of suburban land and encourage people to live in denser towns and cities, which mass transit can serve more effectively. In a century, with any luck, outside of a proper city, few people would live more than a mile or two outside of a town center, and housing subdivisions can be plowed under and returned to being woods and farmland.

There's a fairly good article regarding the general problem here.

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The T is broken, it should be privatized and run on unicorn dust, like the fungwa bus system!

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uhm...that ain't dust...

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I think that you are greatly overestimating the price elasticity of the T ridership. The poorest have no alternative to the T. The richest don't care and would pay A LOT more for something even approaching reliable service. Those in the middle, well, they will grumble, but they're not going to pay to park downtown.

All in all, methinks the T could implement at least a 20% fare increase (for the "rapid" transit lines) tomorrow and I don't think that you would have any demand destruction whatsoever.

May I ask why you have to wait for slack in highway capacity to implement the demand-based road tolling measures? There is no overall capacity issue in the highway system - there is a peak demand problem, just as there is in the electricity network (although not so much in NE because ISO-NE has done a pretty damn good job of managing our grid). As I said last week on a different thread, if peak period tolling were to take hold on the area highways, you'd smooth out demand and make things better on the traffic front right away (and you could funnel the additional revenue to a mass transit system that actually (1) could get people where they want to go; (2) do so reliably; and (3) do so safely.

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"All in all, methinks the T could implement at least a 20% fare increase (for the "rapid" transit lines) tomorrow and I don't think that you would have any demand destruction whatsoever."

Absolutely not. Like almost everything in life, transit ridership is very elastic.

I cant find a Boston chart, but look at ridership in LA when they hiked up prices by 25 cents

Right in the middle, you see every line lost a large portion of their ridership.

http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe4...

A year later and their green line still hasnt reached the pre-fare hike ridership. The blue line just barely made it after a year.

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You're comparing demand elasticity in the car capital of the western world and in Boston? I also disagree with your interpretation of the graph you provided - I would suggest that the slight decrease in gas prices (perhaps under some psychologically important level) that coincided with the months immediately following the fare increase had more to do with the (minor) drop off in ridership.

Again, however, the numbers from LA are totally inapposite. The major premise of my comment was that there would be no or little demand destruction here because there are few or no alternatives. In LA on the other hand, driving is absolutely a viable alternative for most, while here it is not (mostly because of huge downtown parking costs).

And all demand is elastic? Have the average numbers of miles driven in America declined dramatically over the last 12 years as the price of gasoline has increased 4x? Has consumption of health care in the aggregate decreased over the last decade as costs have increased exponentially? There are plenty of other examples of inelastic demand.

I'm not saying that the price elasticity of T ridership is perfectly inelastic. To be sure there is a point were there is demand destruction. I just think a 20% increase is well below that point.

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that was your cue to pull out your old "this is LA not Boston" shirts.

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LA has more transit riders than Boston.

Boston has many alternatives. Besides driving, theres these things called bikes.

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Fact is, for every single person who starts riding the T, it ends up losing more money.

Another thing, lowering the fares won't do anything to increase ridership levels. People choose to drive because it's more convenient. If a doubling in gas prices during the past several years hasn't made a dent, I doubt lowering the cost of a ride would do it, either.

Oh, and why shouldn't those who use the system have to pay for it?

Reducing the amount of land available for growth in the suburbs is a surefire way to increase the cost of housing even more while forcing middle-class residents to continue to migrate out of state.

I'm assuming your crack about returning housing subdivisions into wood and farmlands was purely for comical effect.

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"Fact is, for every single person who starts riding the T, it ends up losing more money. "

No John, thats not how it works.

If the MBTA loses $1 per passenger (example) a new passenger riding doesnt mean the MBTA lsoes another dollar....each additional fare in the existing system is pure increase in "profits" absolutely no losses.

The only way more passengers = more losses is if there's so many new passengers that additional vehicles are put into service.

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Fact is, for every single person who starts riding the T, it ends up losing more money.

So you're suggesting that we shut down the T, so that it loses the least money? I don't think that makes a whole lot of sense. A subway car costs about the same to run whether it is empty or full (slightly more electricity would be needed for a full car due to weight, but the cost of building a tunnel, maintaining tracks, trains, and electrical systems, hiring drivers, lighting stations, etc. doesn't vary whether ridership is high or low), so really the best thing to do is to run the system at capacity, and if possible, to increase capacity and then run it at that.

Another thing, lowering the fares won't do anything to increase ridership levels. People choose to drive because it's more convenient. If a doubling in gas prices during the past several years hasn't made a dent, I doubt lowering the cost of a ride would do it, either.

Increased fares have been directly observed to reduce ridership, both in the MBTA system and in other transit systems. Why wouldn't it work in reverse? Frankly, I'd like to see the system become free (or to have no more than a completely nominal charge in the range of 5 to 25 cents). Using the T should be a completely casual and ordinary thing to do, and if there's no monetary impact on people, it would be. I've experimented with this myself: usually I get a monthly pass, and use the system liberally. But sometimes I'll just get stored value (since I know that due to travel, I likely won't get my money's worth out of a pass), and I find myself using the T far less due to cost.

Also, ridership has gone up due to the increase in gas prices. But when service doesn't take people from where they are to where they need to be, and when service is infrequent, or slow, it may not be enough of an alternative. Thus, not only do we need to reduce fares, but we need to increase service availability (more subway, trolley, and commuter rail lines), speed, and frequency, so that the T becomes extremely convenient as well. Both factors: price and convenience matter. If, as you suggest, price were not relevant, then everyone would just take taxis everywhere, since you don't have to bother parking, or driving oneself, etc. But it would cost a fortune, so few people actually do this. Price matters too.

(Plus, as we should have learned very well over the last 40 years, gas price shocks can come on without warning and grow very rapidly, and the price never really goes down as far as it went up. We can safely anticipate gas prices continuing to rise over time, and perhaps shortages as well. Since this has and will keep pushing people to the T, maybe we ought to start preparing now, since we can't really build all the stuff you need for a good mass transit system overnight.)

Oh, and why shouldn't those who use the system have to pay for it?

Because it provides positive externalities. Let us suppose that the T didn't exist; everyone who commutes into or out of the city at rush hour had to drive, many of them individually rather than in car pools. Suppose also that there were no more capacity on the various highways leading to the city than now. This would mean adding some 100,000 or so cars to the major highways every day. (This number is based solely on average commuter rail ridership -- if we add in the subways, etc., the number will grow substantially)

For example, the Southeast Expressway (I-93 from the Braintree Split to Mass. Av.) was designed to handle about 70,000 cars per day, but currently runs at almost 200,000 cars per day, IIRC. Now, assuming that a decent number of commuters come from the South Shore, you want to add, say, another 25 to 30,000 cars a day? Which would only further slow down traffic? And all those cars will need parking, so you'll have to pay more to park in the city (or your employer will, which may be passed along to you in lieu of actual pay raises).

How much extra do you think parking would cost? What about the cost of gas when you're creeping along and not getting good milage? Would you be willing to pay a toll to travel in an ETL lane so that you have a faster drive? Whatever the total works out to be, that's what you're saving by providing mass transit to get cars off of the road. That, along with other factors, e.g. reduced pollution, reduced energy usage, are benefits that even a non-T rider can enjoy, and in all fairness, ought to pay for.

And shared expenses are not unusual in our society anyhow. I don't have kids, but I don't mind being taxed to support schools, because it's more important to have, and I derive more value from having, an educated populace, with a lot of social mobility based on education and ability, than from the rather small amount of money I'd save if we didn't have that tax.

Incidentally, if the T weren't saddled with debt (much of which it was never the origin of anyway), it would have a budget of around $1 billion annually. Since there are about 6.5 million people living in the state, that would mean $150 per person annually to fund it, if the T no longer collected fares, sold advertising space, etc. And this isn't particularly unfair: most people in the state live in the metro Boston area, which is what the T serves. (But if you do think that the people out west would get shafted, well, I'd be happy to pursue mass transit that funneled people into Springfield and Worcester from their surrounding areas, and which also connected those cities more tightly to Boston and each other) If we kept those other forms of revenue around, a smaller contribution from the general fund could be used for significant improvements and a smaller fare reduction.

Reducing the amount of land available for growth in the suburbs is a surefire way to increase the cost of housing even more while forcing middle-class residents to continue to migrate out of state.

Make it up with higher densities. I don't care for skyscrapers, but the old height limit of around 10 stories for Boston worked pretty well with elevators. Some historic neighborhoods might not get much denser (e.g. Back Bay), but the time may have come to start putting up large apartment blocks (varied in style please -- we don't want projects or even just ugly buildings) in place of three deckers. Frankly, if we had the same urban density as Brooklyn and Queens (which are far below the density and building size of Manhattan -- they're more like, though denser than, Back Bay), we could fit the entire population of metro Boston into maybe a third of the area surrounded by 128. Similar densities in the other cities and towns could give us comfortable cities that are better suited for mass transit, walking, and biking, with a state that's mostly agricultural or left to nature. I like living here because it's dense, and I'd like it more were it denser yet well-planned for density, and I bet others would too. I would expect a policy like this to attract people to MA.

I'm assuming your crack about returning housing subdivisions into wood and farmlands was purely for comical effect.

Nope, I'm dead serious. If you want to live in the countryside, I expect you to be a farmer or rich enough to not give a damn. For the rest of us (I'm not rich), the state should pursue efficiency, environmentalism, and livability and that means density.

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So the solution is to tax the poor to pay off bonds owed to rich investors. Whats next debtors prison for fare evaders?

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Gas tax
/nuff said

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Ehm, didnt the sales tax go up by 20% just to avoid a fare increase anytime soon...?

And doesnt the MBTA get 25% of sales tax revenue?

And didnt we just have a news article about how state tax revenues are up more than expected....?

I'm connecting the dots, and they seem to be saying "no" to a fare icnrease.

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Avoiding a fare increase on the MBTA was probably reason # 106 why the legislature pulled that cowardly stunt last year.

Also, state tax revenues are up, but it is mostly revenue from income taxes and capital gains taxes.

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the T does NOT get 25% of the state's sales tax revenue. it gets less than 20%. when the legislature raised the sales tax to 6.25%, they did not raise the the T's one percent allotment of that tax revenue

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It was initialized as 1% of sales (i.e. 20% of the 5% sales tax revenues).

When the sales tax was increased to 6.25%, the legislature gave some of that to the MBTA. This alleviated the need for a fare hike at the time. I don't recall how or if that was setup for future budgets.

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It's been hard to find information about where the additional 1.25% sales tax goes.

http://www.mbtaadvisoryboard.org/Reports/FY10_Supp... says the MBTA started getting an additional $160 million per year when the sales tax rate increased. But that figure is fixed by law, and doesn't increase with inflation or with increased tax revenues.

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$2.00 for a train ride into Boston from the suburbs, say 15 miles away from the city, is ridiculous, especially when cab fare with tip could be anywhere from $35-$50, and driving one's own car with gas, wear and tear and parking costs is at least that. A $5 train fare and maybe $4 for the bus should be the minimum into Boston. Shorter trips and trips within the city should be slightly cheaper. Charlie Card technology should be able to regulate what is deducted when passengers scan to get on and get off. The DOT / T should also be legally required to reduce administrative staff by a fixed amount, in keeping with the spirit of transportation reform.

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Except.... there is not $2 ride from 15 miles out. The furthest rapid transit station is Braintree, and that's what, 10 miles? So 10+ miles out and you must be taking the commuter rail, which is more expensive.

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Clearly someone who doesnt ride the MBTA.

Look at the commuter rail and express bus prices and get back to us.

With the exception of the braintree branch, which DID have higher fares before ($3 wasnt it?) the entire rest of the system is in the urban core.

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with the exception of zone 1A (which are mostly stations on subway lines, such as Porter). Inner/Outer Express buses into Boston cost $2+.

The cost of local bus and subway is about what you find in most major cities.

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