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Boston's population increase masks declines in swaths of the city
By adamg on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 11:05am
Although the 2010 federal census shows Boston went above 600,000 residents for the first time since 1970, neighborhood-level maps show large parts of Dorchester, Mattapan and Roslindale lost population over the past 10 years. See for yourself on this interactive New York Times map.
One example: Census Tract 101001, roughly centered on Cummins Highway between Harvard Street and Blue Hill Avenue in Mattapan, saw a 9.2% drop in population, to 5,480. Neighboring Tract 101002, from Blue Hill Avenue to Morton Street and bordered on the south by River Street, decreased 7.9%. Tract 11103, which includes the area around Forest Hills station in both JP and Roslindale, dropped 12%, to 5,460.
In contrast, the South Boston waterfront and the areas around Northeastern University exploded in population. Census Tract 612, bounded roughly by Summer Street, Fort Point Channel, I-93 and Old Colony Avenue, for example, saw a 70% increase, to 3,240 people. Neighboring Tract 606, centered on D Street, saw an 81% increase, to 2,357.
Downtown saw similar increases. Tract 70101, across Fort Point Channel from 612 and including Chinatown, increased 86%, to 5,902; Tract 303, centered on State Street (and including part of the North End), went up a more modest 19%, to 4,872.
Roxbury in general also saw population increases. Beacon Hill went up in population, while the Back Bay dropped.
In Dorchester, only Lower Mills, Colombia Point and part of Uphams Corner saw increases.
Neighborhoods:
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Comments
I suspect undercounting
I've been looking at that map all morning, and what jumps out is that the areas with the largest decreases also show large increases in Hispanic population. This is a group that has been chronically under counted for several census iterations. It wouldn't at all surprise me if an under counted Hispanic population growth has caused those tracts to appear to have lost population.
What's the age structure?
Some cities and towns have gone through a couple of population cycles with changing age structures. When a space is mostly older people, the population drops because that tends to be singles and couples living in spaces that once housed larger families. When that flips over to younger people, and when young families buy those homes, the population increases.
The block I live in has been going through this in the last ten years. Younger people with children have bought homes from estates or from older people, and the population has risen accordingly.
I only have anecdotal information
but my block and neighborhood overall seem similar to the way you've described yours. When my wife and I moved in, we had one child, and I don't think there were any others on the street. Since then we've added two more, and probably a dozen young families or expectant couples have moved in. And my perception is that the whole census tract is following this pattern. Yet we lost 4.8% according to the count.
Census Zillow?
I think we need a census zillow. Why not have a site that lists basic demographic info about each address - you can look it up on line and if you find out that if somebody is over/underreported, you just have a system to report it so that an unbiased official can check it out - or maybe they can self report. Lots of details regarding accuracy/privacy to figure out and the experts can work on that- but the technology for population by individual housing unit is definitely there.
sounds like a biz opportunity
if govt can't do it - how long before zillow gets the info - they already have the addresses - if you start cross referencing that with other publicly accessible databases - I'm looking at a city of boston voting document right now that tells me their name, address, date of birth, when they registered to vote and in some cases phone number - if govt won't do it biz will.
Ditto to HenryAlan's points
We moved into Rosi ten years ago - right *after* the last census, and our experience matches his - in our household, our immediate neighborhood, and in Roslindale in general. There are more people here, and more young families.
And I also share his suspicions that the Hispanic population has [allowed themselves to have] been undercounted. I know for a fact that the big household three doors down did not hand in their census report - at least at first - because the fellow who came to our door to encourage us to fill out ours asked if that house was occupied. He thought it looked so, but no one answered the door.
Why did the charles river see
Why did the charles river see a massive exodus in residents?
Yes, that's suspicious, as
Yes, that's suspicious, as are tracts 981 (looks like Arnold Arboretum) and 9811 (Forest Hills Cemetery, the three Walk Hill Cemteries, and Boston Nature Center) and 980101 (Deer, Long, Thompson, and Lovells islands). Most of those would have had few or no (living) residents in the last census too.
Arnold Arboretum actually has residents
Granted, not a lot, but the official caretaker of the place is given a house off the Arborway (or maybe it's Centre Street at that point; in any case, it's between the Poor Clare Nuns and the Hebrew Center), so if one with a bunch of kids gets a new job someplace else and is replaced by a single person ...
Back Bay Is Odd Too
One census district in Back Bay dropped 8%, another 12%, yet an adjacent district increased 8%. I wonder if some of the decreases we're seeing are a combination of changing housing stock into larger residences, and a slight slowdown in sales: that's my impression walking around that neighborhood.
Regarding the large increase
Regarding the large increase in the Downtown/Chinatown area it probably has to do with the recent residential development in the area. The new condos on Providence street obviously weren't there during the 2000 census. The Ritz/Millennium Place Condos, were they there in 2000? Also in past comments some have asked if students are counted in the census. If they are, you would have to take the Suffolk dorms into consideration.
Not just the large new buildings, either
It's kind of amazing how much former office space in and around Downtown Crossing has been converted to residential space over the past decade.
Inferences
I don't think we should infer anything from the data. Look at it in its raw form and take it as it is, at least until the revised figures come out. (Given that the 2009 ACS results had Boston's population at an estimated 645,000, there's a lot of room for error.)
What happened to the neighborhoods in which you all live? What changed in your own census tract?
In mine, census tract 705, the "white" population increased 14%, the "black" population decreased 21%, the Hispanic / Latino population decreased 24%, while Asian population increased 12%.
Those are some radical changes, in percentages. The raw numbers tell a slightly different story (the Black/African American population in 2000 was only 100 more people, for example) but it's a striking change.
How about where you live?