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We're now in Irene's cone of probability
By adamg on Wed, 08/24/2011 - 8:55am
The latest Irene probability map from the National Hurricane Center shows the potential for Irene to smack us upside the head starting Sunday evening. So lay in the masking tape for those windows just in case. And look for the French Toast Alert to go to Yellow sometime this afternoon.
Latest Irene bulletin alerts, via Twitter.
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Comments
A hurricane would be terrible
A hurricane would be terrible if it hit New England.
Though on the plus side it has been amusing to watch the weather people on TV visibly quiver in anticipation at the thought of a major storm heading our direction for the past 4 days.
They do hit New England now and then
In the 20 + years I've lived in Boston, I have strong recollection of three:
And according to wiki, there were a few dozen more:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_England_h...
G-L-O-R-I-A
I distinctly remember taping windows for Gloria ('85) and listening to WBCN doing an endless loop of Gloria songs. Hendrix is still the best one:
I said Gloria get off my chest
It's time to get outta here
Wasn't here for Gloria,
was in California enjoying earthquakes in the mid-eighties. But yes, that's obviously another example, and then their is the granddad of them all.
Bob's yer hurricane
I remember Gloria too - the first hurricane I ever experienced. The tank in Kenmore Square was just too much. Massive frat party on Beacon street, people applauding when trees fell over.
Anyone else remember sitting inside during Hurricane Bob and watching the whole "Gorbychev held captive in his summer home" drama - essentially the end of the Soviet Union?
Was too busy drinking in my underware
to notice externalities, but then we also lost power early in the storm, so no TV even if we'd wanted it.
I do remember that
The funny thing about Bob was how quickly it came up. With Gloria, they made such a big deal about for days. But it moved so slowly up the coast that it lost a lot of it's strength over our colder waters by the time it hit Boston.
But I remember taking summer classes out at UMass Amherst that summer. Hadn't heard anything about Bob until that morning, when I woke to news of imminent hurricanes and coups in the Soviet Union.
Duds
I was in Boston for both Gloria and Bob, and I recall both of them were complete duds. There was the obligatory downed power line or two, but that's about it. A little wind maybe, not even much or any rain. Some coastal areas may have been hit a bit more, but in Boston proper, nada. After the media had everyone whipped into a frenzy.
I also recall a hurricane was expected to hit back around this time in 1976, though I don't remember the name. We did the whole masking tape on the windows routine, etc. People were advised to fill up bottles with tap water. Even fill up their bathtubs. In 1976, bottled water from the store was not a common item at all. And, as usual, no hurricane came.
Gloria left 98,000 people in
Gloria left 98,000 people in Massachusetts - including me - without power, out of some 2.2 million in the northeast. If that's a dud, I'd hate to see a real storm.
More to the point, Boston itself faces only a moderate threat from hurricanes, in that any storm would have to pass over a fair amount of land to bring the eye of the storm over the city. The real danger is regional, and linked to storm surges along southward facing coastlines and bays.
Gloria, in inflation-adjusted dollars, cost something like $1.5 billion. The 1938 'cane cost more like $40 billion. And that was with a coastline that was comparatively sparsely settled.
The threat is quite real, albeit also remote. Those are the most difficult catastrophes to anticipate - the ones which are improbable but also potentially devastating. And we will, inevitably, overreact a number of times before the next '38-like hurricane arrives. But as long as we react appropriately that time, too, the false alarms will have been well worth it.
Re: anon 12:04, 1976 dud was Hurricane Bell
That 1976 non-event was Hurricane Belle. I remember afterwards thinking "that's it?" Gloria was bad enough in Greater Boston, I believe some schools were delayed from starting for a week or two in the towns with heaviest tree and wire damage. Hearing comparisons of Irene to the 'canes of 1938 and 1944.
I don't remember it exactly that way
I do, however, remember going into HS Social Studies class the next schoolday to find good old Mr. Macklow fuming that we didn't get to watch the USSR fall apart on live TV because all our local networks needed constant updates of Shelby Scott or their affiliate's equivalent watching Scituate Harbor froth a bit more than usual.
hurricane bob
i was in new hampshire at a cottage with no tv in the midst of a ten day, blackout drinking binge. somebody finally went into town and picked up a herald and we learned that boston had been destroyed by hurricane bob and the ussr had disolved. we just kept drinking.
V66
Played Gloria by U2 and Rock You Like a Hurricane on the hour all day in 1985.
I totally remember Gloria! I
I totally remember Gloria! I was like 8 and living in Brockton. My old man and I went outside during the blast and I was able to lean into the wind to an almost 45 degree angle. Good times!
I was in Boston for Bertha,
I was in Boston for Bertha, we were here on vacation and my dad bought ponchos for us somewhere. I distinctly remember water coming down the steps into the Copley T station like a waterfall.
Category 1
Most weather people are saying that its just going to hit us as a category 1. We had stronger winds last week during that freak storm.
Where to start? Most weather
Where to start?
Most weather people are smart enough to know that 5-day forecasts have an average error of 200-250 miles, and that 5-day intensity forecasts are even less reliable. At the moment, it shows a Category 1 storm coming ashore in New England, or brushing along the coast. But that's contingent on the storm not moving faster than expected (giving it less time to lose strength over cooler northern waters) and on it not getting stronger than expected. The models are notoriously bad at forecasting intensity changes in major hurricanes. It may replace its eyewalls for the next couple days, never gaining significant strength - or it could bloom overnight into a Category 5 monster. We'll have a much better idea what to expect in about 48 hours, after the storm has passed over the warmest open water in its path, allowing us to fix the point from which it will deteriorate.
Two other points to bear in mind. The first is that with hurricanes, we're talking about the strongest sustained winds. What we had last week were gusts. The gusts associated with a Cat 1 storm will approach Cat 2 or 3 in intensity. And sustained winds can do a heck of a lot more damage, particularly to trees, than sudden gusts.
The other is that the catastrophic Long Island Express in 1938 did much of its damage via storm surge. So the track is much more important here than the intensity. Even a greatly weakened Cat 1 storm that had a large peak and a substantial ACE will bring an enormous surge to the areas to the east of where its eye makes landfall. Conversely, a relatively small Category 3 storm that brushes its eye along the coastline will bring some wind damage, but its storm surge will be mild and the total damage far lower.
So if you want to take comfort from the fact that you've survived some brief wind gusts, go right ahead. But I'm staying away from Narraganset Bay until the models shift eastward.
THANK you.
This is the kind of details I complain about all the time (and my friends know it). I had been holding off this time. My usual boiling point is when reporters/meteorologists call a Category 1 hurricane as a "minimal hurricane."
Cat 1
While we did have strong winds last week, it is the sustained nature of hurricane force winds that make them more dangerous. Now, I am not saying this is going to be a big deal at all, nor that you should run around in a panic, but a hit from a Category 1 can be a big problem.
Except that the freak storm
came and went relatively quickly, and had relatively few impacts except along the immediate coast. This one will be a longer duration and over a wider area.
true
True.. but a cat 1 after being over colder water can lose strength quick.
Honestly I think its going to be a non event. Unless its a Cat 3 as it leaves the carolinas and heads up the coast, its going to be a non event for us.
Ain't exactly cold
In the upper 70s and low 80s up into Nantucket sound and gansett for a month now.
TV news and fake hurricanes
The TV weather people will carry on as if it is a hurricane, even when it doesn't happen. They can't let the public down, after all. They promised a hurricane and they will deliver one. I've lost count of the times they position some harried newscaster on the windiest part of a random beach they can find, even when the promised storm turns out to be a dud, and the newscaster excitedly says "here we are in the heart of the storm..." when it is obvious to all there isn't one. I recall one time when a newscaster was going through this fake routine about what a bad storm it was, while, unbeknowst to her, right behind her were two children happily playing in the sand with pails and shovels. The camera person must have been laughing. So much for a hurricane.
Taping windows
I remember doing this for Hurricane Gloria, but I thought it was no longer recommended?
Depends on the window
We don't tape ours in our house because they are double-paned.
If you still have single-paned windows and some have cracks, it might be a good idea.
Hopefully, she'll turn to sea
Make waves, not rubble! Felix is your God!
moving day
just imagine the havoc that will ensue if the hurricane sticks around for the 31st/1st, with all the people moving those days.
We're now up to Cat 3!
Expected to reach Cat 4, and the eye will stay OFF the Carolinas, meaning it will not weaken quite as much by the time it hits New England. Forecasts are showing direct hit on the South Coast of RI and MA.
The 2PM advisory puts the
The 2PM advisory puts the storm at 120mph, with central pressure starting to fall again down to 154MB. The track updates extend the NHC forecast northward, taking the storm as a borderline Cat 1/2 over the edge of Eastern Long Island, making a second landfall near the CT/RI state line. That's far too close for comfort to the historical track of the 1938 hurricane - and while this storm isn't nearly as strong, and isn't forecast to move as quickly northward, it's plenty big and bad already. And according to the latest intensity guidance, it has about a 1 in 3 chance of growing to Category 5, like the '38 storm. But its windfields are already unusually large.
Don't focus on the category, though. That's set by the worst winds in the storm, and they only hit a very narrow swathe. There are very small Cat 5 storms, and very large Cat 1 canes. The key number to watch is IKE - essentially, the total energy of the storm. That's a blend of its size and its power. And right now, at 54 KJ, Irene is plenty big and powerful. That means it will be piling up enormous amounts of ocean water to the northeast of its center. And it means that it will pack a devastating storm surge to the areas east of where it hits land.
Given the extent of the windfield, I suspect it's now more than probable that Boston will experience tropical-storm force winds from this storm. The probability was placed at 36% in the 11AM update; when those numbers are issued again at 5PM, they'll likely top 50%. And if this track is right, pray for the south coast.
Adam, time to raise that French Toast alert level.
I concur
I agree with everything Anon said. I'm not a meteorologist, but Matt Noyes hasn't steered me wrong yet and he's predicting much of the same.
Also, the National Weather Service is currently predicting
tropical storm conditions, not hurricane conditions, for the Boston area on Sunday.
Uncertainty in track and magnitude
12 hours ago they said Hurricane, and before that tropical storm ... the estimates are still changing.
While the forecasts get more certain with time, one would be best to plan for what CAN happen, not what one most wants to happen.
Didn't mean to imply that we shouldn't prepare
for a serious storm. Be it a hurricane or a tropical storm, everyone in this area should keep a close eye (no pun intended) on the predicted track. And yes, any storm like this one can be very unpredictable as they move north.
At the same time, I take the fact that the National Weather Service, which is not looking to boost ratings or advertising sales - unlike the local "shock and scare" media or sites like Weather.com - is downgrading their forecast somewhat as the storm gets closer to us, as an encouraging sign.
However, that doesn't mean I'm going to drop my guard or think "well, I don't have to prepare for this one, it won't be a big deal" just because the NWS is calling for a tropical storm instead of a hurricane.
On the other hand, I don't feel compelled to rush right out to the supermarket and buy 30 gallons of milk, 80 cartons of eggs, and 200 loaves of bread either.
The Tides are High
Storm Surge is expected to be a serious risk this time: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme...
This is a good time to check your supplies
Do you have flashlights? Batteries, if needed?
A few gallons of clean water?
Some non-perishable food stuffs?
Plastic sheeting, even? (can be useful for broken windows and keeping water out)
Anything else that you might need if the power went out for a time?
Basic stuff - should have it around anyway. Winter is yet to come, hurricane or no.
BTW - the '38 Hurricane barreled over Long Island and Narragansett bay at a Cat 3 - with a forward speed of over 50 mph! It wasn't a cat 5 at landfall.
Also, a battery-powered radio
or, even better, a hand-crank one.
Irene from the Space Station
Wednesday afternoon.